Monday, December 31, 2012

東方海外﹕明年運費仍會加


東方海外﹕明年運費仍會加
2014年貨櫃船市場將趨供求平衡
2012年12月31日
【明報專訊】過去兩年,歐美經濟低迷,亞洲增長放緩,航運業陷入困境。不過,接近年尾,主業為貨櫃運輸的東方海外(0316)仍可加運費。東方海外主席董建成說,明年貨櫃航運業新供應仍會遠超需求,但至2014年供求可望變得較平衡,只要美國經濟能如期持續復蘇,他估計明年運費仍有能力再加。

東方海外2012年上半年純利跌33%,至1.17億美元,但已較同業虧損為好。在中期業績中,東方海外提到未來18個月會有240萬個標準箱的新船運力,相當於環球運力的15%。

董建成接受本報訪問時說﹕「最近一兩年仍會是運力過剩。預計明年(2013年)會是最糟糕的一年。」董建成指需求不會在短期內大幅回升,供需不平衡的情仍惡劣。

燃氣價降 美出口可憧憬

不過,董建成認為,經濟低迷對於成本控制優於對手的企業,或是擴大優勢的機會。「今年(2012年)航運業面臨大虧損,很多船公司只能通過增加運費的方式擺脫困境。對於東方海外,在仍保持盈利的情下,又可享受業內共同加運費的好處」。他對航運業回暖表示有信心,認為從經濟復蘇情看,明年仍有再加運費的空間,並預計到2014年,運力供應和需求會相對接近。

東方海外2012年第三季營運數據顯示,貨運量按年增加3.4%,但收入卻增加10.9%,反映之前加運費的效益已逐步彰顯。

董建成尤其看好美國的經濟前景。他引述報告說,2020年美國的能源產業可以發展到自給自足的水平,天然氣和油產量都會提升,大大降低工業的成本,對出口有很大幫助。「美國天然氣價格從2006年最高的每百萬英國熱量單位(MMBtu)16美元,到現在低於4美元。而亞洲目前平均為12美元,美國的出口成本有很大優勢。」董建成強調,要為2020年的樂觀展望做準備,各項增加運力的投資現在就要開始籌劃。「船公司要看長遠的平均增長情,不會因某年特別好或者特別差而改變策略。」

通脹料停不了 加風迎2013

衣食住行綜合消費物價指數按年走勢
通脹料停不了 加風迎2013
私樓租金恐升1成 市民減消費自保
明天元旦日、正式踏入2013年;然而,本港受外圍經濟影響,加上最低工資調升的效應下,預計新一年的通脹將停不了,衣食住行無一倖免,私樓租金升5%至10%,食肆料明年整體加幅超越今年達10%至15%。

MAS, AirAsia and Firefly unfazed by Malindo entry


The Star Online > Business
Monday December 31, 2012
MAS, AirAsia and Firefly unfazed by Malindo entry

KUALA LUMPUR: The vibrant Malaysian aviation sector is expected to spur further growth next year with potential competition expected from new entrant, Malindo Airways, which is poised to hog the industry limelight.

The announcement of Malindo Airways’ entry, made early this year, is one of many news-making events that shook the industry in 2012 apart from the aborted Malaysia Airlines (MAS) and AirAsia Bhd share swap deal in May, the delivery of MAS’ first Airbus A380 in June and a recent firm order placed by AirAsia for an additional 100 Airbus A320 aircraft.

Challenging times ahead

Challenging times ahead

2012/12/31

SEPTEMBER 11 2011 is the date Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia (Poram) members will always remember.

It was the day the Indonesian government announced its intention to widen the tax gap between crude and refined palm oil.

This made crude palm oil (CPO) and crude palm kernel oil very cheap for downstream businesses in Indonesia.

On top of that, processed palm oil in the form of cooking oil, soaps and detergents shipped out from there are minimally-taxed.

A380 lifts MAS to higher plane


A380 lifts MAS to higher plane
By Hamisah Hamid
hamisahhamid@nstp.com.my
2012/12/31

WITH the quietest cabin, aerodynamics for higher fuel efficiency, advanced materials for lower weight and fuel burn, latest fully integrated systems for lower cost and new generation engines for fuel efficiency and lowest environmental impact, the A380 - the world's largest commercial plane flying today is a game-changing airliner.

For passengers, the A380 is attractive for its comfort, advanced technology and spacious cabin, and for airlines, the aircraft has higher load factor and average yields, thus translates into higher profits.

Felda Global may sell Tradewinds stake

Felda Global may sell Tradewinds stake
By Zaidi Isham Ismail
xydee@nstp.com.my
2012/12/31

FELDA Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) may sell its 20 per cent stake in Tradewinds (M) Bhd, worth an estimated RM551.5 million, to fund future land expansion.
FGV president and chief executive officer Datuk Sabri Ahmad said if the company decides to sell the stake, the proceeds will be used in its upstream sector, which is to buy more plantation land.

"However, we will first evaluate the situation and seek advice from investment banks before deciding whether to keep or sell the stake.

炒友Blog:信行折讓大 中線睇六元 - 邱古奇


炒友Blog:信行折讓大 中線睇六元 - 邱古奇



抵出口疲弱减国家财赤 2013年经济靠内需投资


抵出口疲弱减国家财赤 2013年经济靠内需投资
Created 12/29/2012 - 09:18
(吉隆坡28日讯)尽管外围环境恶劣,但经济学家认为,大马2013年将持续享受经济增长果实,归功内需和投资的带动。

虽然部分些经济学家预期大马经济2013全年增长不及2012年,但私人领域支出撑起的内需扩张预期可抵消疲弱的出口,以及有助国家大幅减低财赤。

他们也预期,建筑、旅游、服务及油气业将为大马国库创造更多收入。

加息快到 增供樓負擔


加息快到 增供樓負擔

【未雨綢繆】

息口走勢是影響樓市的一大原因。美國聯儲局破天荒將利率與失業率掛鈎,意味聯儲局可能會提早於2015年前加息。息口一旦回升,勢對樓市帶來衝擊,計劃置業的市民或要做好加息準備。

中原財務董事總經理梁理中則指,美國雖有可能提早加息,但相信一定不會是2013年。但他提醒準備買樓的市民,本港離加息周期相信不遠,應未雨綢繆在加息前早做好準備,以免將來萬一息口回升,供樓便出現問題。現時樓宇按揭實際息率約2.25至2.5厘,建議市民在這個利息上加兩厘,以「5厘」計算供款。即使日後大幅加息,供樓影響亦不成問題。

马股2013更上一层楼?


马股2013更上一层楼?

市场分析员对马股明年走势和投资策略所提出的看法和分析相当一致,主要有3点值得关注:

第一,富时大马综指2013年料维持涨势,最大潜在风险来自第13届全国大选所带来的不稳定因素。 市场2013年上半年较为波动,直至大选后。

第二,综合8家对马股明年走势作出预测的证券行及投资银行当中,除了联昌国际投行之外,另外7家均认为马股在2013年杪能攀上1700点以上水平,7家投行的明年目標水平介於1710-1815点。

第三,分析员普遍擬定保守和较谨慎的投资策略,主攻较具「防御性」的股项,受看好的领域包括消费、保健和建筑等。

亚洲股市2013是好年

亚洲股市2013是好年

2012年是个多事之秋,中国经济放缓和欧洲债务危机升级,一直是悬在亚洲股市头上的达摩克利斯之剑。不过时至年末,亚洲股市出现反弹,且涨势可圈可点。

摩根史丹利资本国际新兴市场亚洲指数在12月19日升至1053.179点,写下16个月新高,之后在28日进一步升至1055.18点,今年累计涨幅15.15%,击败摩根史丹利全球新兴市场指数14.87%的升幅。

在今年最后一个月里,投资者一直紧绷的神经开始放鬆下来。隨著欧洲建设性措施的出台和中国经济復甦跡象的不断增多,亚洲股市今年面临的重大阻力也逐步消除。

富达全球投资(Fidelity Worldwide Investment)驻香港的投资主管萨曼特(Medha Samant)表示,亚洲股市的估值较低、利率较低、通货膨胀也在控制之中,这都对明年的走势有利。富达全球投资在全球管理著2330亿美元资產。

財崖震散美股 料無礙熱錢湧港


財崖震散美股 料無礙熱錢湧港
資金捧中國趨勢不變
2012年12月30日
【明報專訊】美財政懸崖已到了最後時刻,眾議院今日會恢復議事,總統奧巴馬昨重申希望兩黨能達成共識,但若未能訂立協議,將要求國會就他建議方案進行強制性投票;分析員料兩黨最終仍可「有驚無險」達成協議,但若不幸「墮崖」,料勢必對金融市場造成震盪,美若即時執行緊縮措施,花旗料將拖累美明年GDP共8080億美元(約6.26萬億港元),影響佔比高達5%,或令經濟陷入衰退,但由於資金仍會流出美元區,料不會改變熱錢湧港情。

國會今議事最後時刻

量度市場恐慌情緒的芝加哥VIX指數急升逾16%至22.72,處近5個月高位,假如美國不幸「墮崖」,中大全球政治經濟社會科學碩士課程兼任講師黃元山直言,勢必牽起環球金融市場的震盪,因美國經濟或面臨衰退威脅,因近月經濟增長及失業人數見改善,但佔美國GDP近70%的消費信心已跌至近5個月最低,假如財崖談判告吹,明年2%薪俸稅優惠及其他稅務優惠屆滿後,料美國人會削減消費開支,經濟呈負增長,失業率回升,並將進一步影響新興市場出口表現,環球股市勢必波動。

日本鋪路打貨幣戰


日本鋪路打貨幣戰

市場揣測日本新任政府將出手推低日圓匯價,令圓匯近期走弱,外界憂慮日本正為環球貨幣戰爭「煽風點火」之際,日本新任財務大臣麻生太郎為此作出辯護之餘,更指摘歐美同樣在壓低本幣,呼籲美國應推高美元匯價,市場認為日本正鋪路讓日圓下跌。

麻生直言,美國應盡其本分推高美元匯價,而他已致電美國財長蓋特納表明立場,指日圓匯價毫無疑問地是過高,雖然圓匯早前的升浪因近期跌勢逐步修正,但表示情況很有可能逆轉,當局會密切注視圓匯走勢。

推低本幣 大勢所趨

依斯干达特区梦已逐步成真


12月4日,在柔南的依斯干达特区举行的第8届的世界伊斯兰经纪论坛,除了邀请首相拿督斯里纳吉开幕之外,新加坡副总理兼財长尚达曼也前来出席这项盛会。 同期间,多项在依斯干达特区的大型发展项目也相继公佈,包括UEM置地与新加坡富商林荣福联手打造赛车城的计划,让这地区的风头一时无两。

经歷了5年的基建发展阶段,2011年已经进入第2发展阶段的依斯干达特区,今日是什么样的一种风貌?

正当大家都在好奇依斯干达如今已发展至什么程度时,我们从国內一名刚从依斯干达实地考察回来的投行分析员口中得知,该区的发展並没有我们想像中迅速,同时有著许多等待被发展的土地。

分析员透露,该地无论是车流量或人流量,与去年相比皆看不出有显著的上扬。他表示,过去一个月成为热门话题的依斯干达区的基建设施及建筑物都建得不错,惟人烟却依旧稀少。

2012热闹还要继续

2012热闹还要继续
Created 12/28/2012 - 13:10
时光飞逝,2012年又到了尾声。

整体上,大马产业价虽未呈现如去年一般优越的走势,惟本地产业界今年却依然相当“热闹”……这一年来,从政府的政策与措施,到本地各发展商的扩展计划和企业活动,再到与产业领域关系密切的产业投资信托(REIT,简称产托)市场,总是消息不断。

趁着年关之前,我们全面检讨房市过去一年的表现和大事。

新大型计划 延续活跃

米兰兵法:发展商财力决定风险

米兰兵法:发展商财力决定风险
Created 12/28/2012 - 13:51
在前两篇文章中,我提到向发展商购买产业的好处,包括有机会购买“便宜”的房屋、特定人士可获优惠、可优先选择单位、购买全新单位、有吸引力和创新的营销计划、获得赠品以及初期现金支出很少等等。

此外,直接向发展商购房子,比较适合准备结婚的人,且选择公寓的话,还能节省印花税。

但是,直接向发展商购房子也并非无懈可击,个中大家最需要留意的是所承担的风险。

前面说了不少直接向发展商购买房屋的好处,事实上,当中也有一些坏处。

小股東憂陷困‧馬帕斯管理層大派定心丸


小股東憂陷困‧馬帕斯管理層大派定心丸
Created 12/29/2012 - 13:02
(吉隆坡28日訊)小股東擔心馬帕斯(MPCORP,6548,主板產業組)陷PN17危機,新管理層大派定心丸,強調有信心明年轉虧為盈,並承諾未來繼續提昇企業價值。

公司主席兼首席執行員拿督莊崇寶在結束2小時半的股東大會後表示,這是該公司第一次歷經如此冗長的會議,主要是因為部份小股東擔心新管理層接手後,可能令公司列入PN17陷困公司危機,進而追問企業的未來動向和財務詳情。

“我們承諾會竭盡所能為公司增值,雖然目前資產值看似無增減,但這不代表它無增值的可能,未來將視資產估值和公司狀況作出改進,我們有信心2013年可轉虧為盈。"該公司因融資成本高企,2013財政年首季淨虧損從前期的282萬7千令吉擴大至528萬8千令吉,主要收益來源也因產業租用率走低影響,導致營業額挫跌2.36%。

公積金局減持馬航至7.08%


公積金局減持馬航至7.08%
Created 12/29/2012 - 12:58
(吉隆坡28日訊)雇員公積金局連續3天脫售馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服組)高達1千116萬零980股股票,減低持股至7.08%。

交易所資料顯示,公積金局在12月18至20日期間,分別脫售馬航300萬、500萬和316萬零980股股票,將直接持股從7.32%減至7.08%,但並未透露交易價格。

Temasek boosts Olam stake to 19%, says attractive long term


Temasek boosts Olam stake to 19%, says attractive long term

Temasek Holdings Pte, Singapore’s state-owned investment company, boosted its stake in Olam International by another percentage point in the past week after saying the commodity trader is an attractive long-term investment.

Two units controlled by Temasek bought around 24 million shares between Dec 20 and today, lifting its deemed interest to 19% from 18%, according to an Olam filing. One purchase of 100,000 shares was made on the market today, the filing said.

Temasek, Olam’s second-biggest shareholder, last week raised its stake from 16% to 18%, saying that it’s “pleased” to have the opportunity to add to its holdings. Olam “represents a reasonably attractive investment over the long term,” it said. Temasek earlier this month backed Olam’s proposed bond offering, agreeing to buy any rights not taken up by other investors.

TECHNOLOGY SECTOR: SILVER LINING BUT DARK CLOUDS REMAIN (OCBC)


TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
SILVER LINING BUT DARK CLOUDS REMAIN
• Recovery optimism in 2013
• But near-term weakness likely to persist
• Reiterate NEUTRAL; Venture is our top pick

A year to forget
2012 was a volatile year for companies in the cyclical tech sector, due to the macroeconomic woes that spilled over from 2011. The situation was exacerbated by rising cost pressures arising largely from minimum wage hikes in the region. Coupled with sluggish revenue growth or even declines in revenue, this has resulted in operating deleverage and margin compression, given the high fixed costs inherent in the cost structure of tech companies.

Liquidity may carry rally into early 2013


Outlook Liquidity may carry rally into early 2013
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Ho Wah Foon of theedgemalaysia.com  
Monday, 31 December 2012 15:32

KUALA LUMPUR: Abundant liquidity may support the upward momentum of FBM KLCI into January and could even spur a traditional Chinese New Year (CNY) rally that has not been seen in recent years, according to some analysts.

Last Friday, the benchmark KLCI rose to end at a new record high of 1681.33, driven largely by high liquidity and year-end window-dressing of index-linked stocks by institutional funds.

“The year-end market will continue to rise up to mid-January… Ample liquidity in the system may even spark a CNY rally. It will be a liquidity-driven rally,” said Pong Teng Siew, head of research for Interpacific Securities Sdn Bhd.

ECS HOLDINGS: FY13 TO BE A BETTER YEAR (OCBC)

ECS HOLDINGS
Fair value S$0.56
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.017
versus: Current price S$0.45

FY13 TO BE A BETTER YEAR
• Smooth transition expected for CEO change
• IT spending in APAC to remain robust
• Trading at depressed 0.48x FY13F P/NTA

Appointment of new CEO, effective 1 Jan 2013
ECS Holdings (ECS) recently announced that Executive Director Mr. Ong Wei Hiam would be appointed as its new CEO from 1 Jan 2013. This came after current CEO Mr. Narong Intanate stated his intention to retire and step down from the role on 31 Dec 2012, when his employment contract expires.

HENGYANG: 1/34 of Vopak’s 34m cbm, €1bn EBITDA (Phillip)


HENGYANG
Target Price (SGD) 0.27
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 0.610
Closing Price (SGD) 0.197
1/34 of Vopak’s 34m cbm, €1bn EBITDA

A leading storage & transportation provider (tanks & jetties) to PRC/MNC businesses in liquid petrochemicals. Operates 2 terminals in Jiangying & Jingjiang cities – at the mouth of Yangtze River. Terminals upriver, at various stages of development, are Wuhan, Chongqing, Yueyang & Jiujiang
• New facility impacting revenue/margins.
• IPT: 40% disposal of 2 new projects.
• Valuation switched to RIV method but discounted by 47% artificial dilution of share base.
• Execution risks aside, distributable earnings ~ 60% of current share price.

Oldtown - Listing Of New Shares On 21st Dec

Oldtown -
Price Target : 2.40
Last Price : 2.15
Listing Of New Shares On 21st Dec

News  
Oldtown announced that it would be listing its recent issue of 33.0m new shares today. To recap, the shares were issued at RM1.95 each and represented 10% of its existing issued share capital of 330m shares.

Comments    
The exercise raised RM64.4m in cash for Oldtown, doubling its current net cash position to RM128.7m.

This will allow the company to partially fund the business expansion of both its caf'' and beverage manufacturing businesses both domestically and internationally.

MISC: Why didn't it disclose how much it provided for FPSE Cendor?


Revenue up, but profit down

21/12/2012 – MISC says the shipping industry will remain challenging but long-term contracts in its LNG and offshore businesses provide stability.

It intends to keep cutting costs, at a time when demand and freight rates are low, and there is an oversupply of ships.

The company just announced earnings for Q3 FY12:

Revenue: +4% to RM 2.29 bln
Profit: -18% to RM 163.7 mln
One-off losses: An undisclosed one-off provision for FPSO Cendor that led to a 16.1% decrease in its Heavy Engineering’s operating profit to RM 422.4 mln.
Cash flow from operations: RM 841.2 mln vs RM 960 mln
Dividend: 0 sen per share vs 0 sen per share

Container Shipping: Potential for re-rating emerging (DBSV)


Container Shipping
Potential for re-rating emerging

Container Shipping
Potential for re-rating emerging
• Improved industry discipline and liners’ renewed focus on profitability should lead to better freight rates and earnings in FY13, compared to FY12
• This will help offset concerns arising from the continued demand-supply imbalance
• With market sentiment improving as well, we should thus expect re-rating for this cyclical sector
• Upgrade NOL and OOIL to BUY, CSCL to HOLD;

In a year of fear, dividend stocks shine (AM)

In a year of fear, dividend stocks shine
In a year ravaged by fears about a Greek default, a hard landing in China and a US recession, high-dividend stocks beat their racier high-growth counterparts in total returns as they assured investors that their strong cash flows could continue.

In Singapore, investors putting their money in the top 20 stocks with the highest indicative dividend yields at the end of last year would have enjoyed total average returns of 30.5 per cent, according to data compiled by the Singapore Exchange as requested by The Business Times.

In contrast, those putting their money in the top 20 stocks by historical beta - fast-growing stocks with the highest volatility relative to the Straits Times Index - recorded a total average return of 15.2 per cent.

Hi-P: Not yet ready to change our Sell call (Limtan)


HI-P
S$0.765-HIPS.SI
 Hi-P’s share price has pulled back close to 10% in the past 2 weeks and during this period, Apple’s share price has corrected slightly more than Hi-P at 12.6%.

 The recent weakness in Hi-P and Apple’s share prices can be attributed to supply chain checks from US and Asia analysts on Apple which revealed some order cut backs during 4Q ’12 as well as 1Q ’13 as a result of weaker than expected demand.

投資SUN角度:買地產股 好過買樓

投資SUN角度:買地產股 好過買樓

政府十月份公布非本港居民及公司名義買樓要繳付15%買家印花稅,辣招當堂嚇窒樓市,成交量急降。有銀行表示,十二月份樓宇按揭宗數大減五成,十二月首二十一日,一手私樓及二手住宅註冊宗數合共2,649宗,較十一月的7,197宗足足減少63%。

不過,這個由供求失衡所衍生的地產大牛市,在低息環境的推波助瀾下已走了十個年頭,美國失業率一日唔跌,低息政策都唔會改變。而按入息中位數,現時港人供樓負擔約佔收入一半,遠遠不及一九九七年逾八成水平。

政府十月公布買家印花稅後,樓宇成交宗數減少,銀行按揭部門為爭生意,開始調低按息。供樓成本低,直接支持了高樓價,除非息口期望改變,利率進入上調周期,樓價才有機會出現急挫的誘因。

大環境小投資: 五大主題左右後市 - 潘國光


大環境小投資: 五大主題左右後市 - 潘國光

尚有兩天便踏入2013年,先祝讀者新年進步!明年投資該如何部署?筆者在此提出五大主題:

成熟經濟體增長呆滯──在高負債窒礙經濟增長的大環境下,展望明年美、歐、日的經濟增長將持續呆滯,美、日政府將不會亦不能推行類似歐洲的緊縮措施,意謂負債及財赤都不會改善;而整體歐洲則續受財困成員國拖累,核心國包括德、法、荷等將進一步跌近衰退邊緣。

量寬支撐新興股市──日本政府近期多番要求央行須採取更積極的無上限量鬆,事實上,當前多個地區包括美、歐及瑞士等已採納了類似的措施,新興市場及亞太區等與美元關係密切的貨幣,為保滙率穩定,其央行也被迫大量增加貨幣供應。可預見在成熟經濟體增長呆滯的前提下,各地央行主動或被動地推行寬鬆措施將在所難免。資金充裕抵銷了部份經濟面的利淡因素,股市尤以新興市場料獲承接,惟美、歐、日債務問題將間歇地帶來市場震盪。

投資導航:低吸優質抽水股


投資導航:低吸優質抽水股

傳統智慧認為,無論企業配股集資,抑或股東減持套現,皆預示股價見頂,尤其後者更視為看淡後市指標;不過,今年股市牛氣沖天,批股反被視為不明朗因素消除,越抽水越升的股份比比皆是,在熱錢持續流入下,這現象料將維持一段時間。今期「投資導航」將近期配股企業分成低中高風險三類,投資者可因應自身風險承受能力作出選擇,穩陣坐貨抑或刀仔鋸大樹悉隨尊便。

1)大股東盡沽 友邦掃清障礙
投資大價股未必可勁賺,但穩穩陣陣賺餐茶錢應無問題。近月巨無霸批股消息頻頻,為散戶提供低位入市良機,當中包括滙控(005)沽售平保(2318),以及中電(002)罕有配股集資,但從估值及前景看,則以遭大股東美國國際集團(AIG)悉售的友邦保險(1299)最值博。

周日趣BLOG BLOG:蘋果半壁江山快掉了 - 股榮

周日趣BLOG BLOG:蘋果半壁江山快掉了 - 股榮

失去教主喬布斯(Steve Jobs)的蘋果公司(Apple),已經步向中衰階段。由iPhone4S開始,在蘋果字典裏,已經沒有了創意、創新,沒有改變世界,只有不斷食老本。很難想像,新電話賣點仍然是薄少少,高1cm。然後加入小動作,換插頭,更離譜是裝上垃圾地圖。教主在生的話,這類事一定不會發生,新舵手庫克(Tim Cook)今年沒有認股權,人工變相少99%,總算有自知之名。

蘋果公司股價今年最多升74%,9月21日高見705美元,然後開始插水,上周五晚收509美元,全年升幅收窄至26%。反觀對手三星電子今年跳「go go style」,年內進賬44%。優勝劣敗,除反映在股價上,從目測消費亦反映事實,環顧80後90後一族,少於一半用iPhone,更多的反而是三星,當中巨屏Note II成為新寵兒。

赌场业务稳 估值最廉宜 博彩股首选云顶大马


赌场业务稳 估值最廉宜 博彩股首选云顶大马
Created 12/29/2012 - 11:48
(吉隆坡28日讯)大马赌场业务增长稳定,支撑云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)和云顶马来西亚(GenM,4715,主板贸服股)盈利表现,故分析员维持博彩业“增持”评级。

侨丰投资研究分析员指出,云顶高原赌场业务超越云顶新加坡,国内高级会员的赌博量写下双位数增长,而普通市场亦有单位数增长。

占云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)盈利贡献55%比重的云顶新加坡,营运环境极具挑战性,特别是全球放缓,影响高级会员赌博量,而且新加坡加诸条例限制赌场旅行团。

分析员预期,云顶新加坡的短期盈利展望,仍极具挑战性。

Singapore likely slipped into recession in Q4

Singapore likely slipped into recession in Q4

Singapore likely joined Japan in recession in the fourth quarter of 2012, dragged down by weakness in its top exports of electronics, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Gross domestic product (GDP) probably shrank by an annualised and seasonally adjusted 1.4% in October-December from the preceding three months, the median estimate of six economists showed.

The economy contracted 5.9% in the third quarter from April-June at a seasonally adjusted and annualised rate and so another quarter-on-quarter decline would meet the definition of a recession.

曾淵滄專欄 31.12.12:城鎮化利壓低工資

曾淵滄專欄:城鎮化利壓低工資 - 曾淵滄

今年的聖誕節與家人在曼谷度過,我到過曼谷數次,是一個理想的輕鬆度假地點,早上在酒店內吃早餐,可以聽到很多講廣東話的旅客,估計是香港來的,也可以聽到很多講英語的華裔旅客,估計是新加坡來的,來自內地的旅客並不多,也許因為聖誕節在中國不是假期,聖誕節在泰國也不是公眾假期,但是旅遊區的聖誕氣氛極濃,滿街的燈光比香港更燦爛。

在曼谷度假的最大好處是經濟實惠,十年前在旅遊區一般餐館吃一碗魚蛋粉是40泰銖,街邊小店的泰式按摩每小時只收250泰銖,今日魚蛋粉、泰式按摩的收費竟然與十年前一模一樣。

The year of living cautiously


The Star Online > Business
Saturday December 29, 2012
The year of living cautiously

BY TEE LIN SAY

THE year 2012 was defined by derisking, a cautious outlook and wealth preservation.

Boring stocks ruled. Dividends were in. Speculative stocks ran out of favour.

The trend in the second half of the year was clear cut. Penny stocks either meandered in lacklustre trading or were hammered into oblivion.

Meanwhile, the banks, telcos and real estate investment trust (REITs) started picking up steam.

The luxury condo market in 2013 is set to find itself in a ‘waiting game’ amid swelling supply

The Star Online > Business
Saturday December 29, 2012
The luxury condo market in 2013 is set to find itself in a ‘waiting game’ amid swelling supply

BY THEAN LEE CHENG and LIZ LEE
starbiz@thestar.com.my

The overall high-end condominium market has been challenging in the past six months and this is expected to continue into next year.

Knight Frank reported that two new completions in the second half of 2012 with a total of 967 units from St. Mary Residences and Binjai 8 have brought the cumulative supply of condominium units in Kuala Lumpur to 30,849 units.

The property outlook for 2013


The Star Online > Business
Saturday December 29, 2012
The property outlook for 2013

VALUE & WORTH BY ELVIN FERNANDEZ

IN 2012, Malaysia's economy continued its steady growth in the order of 5% to 6% a year, a range that it has settled into since the Asian financial crisis of the mid 1990s.

The property market is correlated to economic growth. The residential subsector is also driven by high household formation that stems from Malaysia's relatively young population with rising income.

Residential prices, as measured against household income, is a key fundamental in this subsector. This is due to the fact that residential properties are mainly owner-occupied that mainly drives demand for residential properties.

OSK: Smaller firms trading at cheap valuations will draw interest

The Star Online > Business
Saturday December 29, 2012
OSK: Smaller firms trading at cheap valuations will draw interest

PETALING JAYA: Smaller oil and gas companies that are trading at cheap valuations of less than 10 times forward earnings would make good takeover targets in view of the rising contract flows next year, said OSK Research.

“We particularly like Perdana Petroleum Bhd as we believe its major shareholder, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd, may increase its stake in the company if the latter manages to secure jobs in the Pan Malaysia cluster of fields to ensure the jobs are executed immediately as new vessels take time to build,” OSK Research oil and gas analyst Danny Chan wrote in a note to clients.

FE Orchard appoints Koh Boon Hwee as chairman


FE Orchard appoints Koh Boon Hwee as chairman
11:36 PM Dec 28, 2012
SINGAPORE - Far East Orchard, formerly known as Orchard Parade Holdings, has appointed veteran corporate leader Koh Boon Hwee as a non-executive director and non-executive chairman with effect from 1 January.

The 62-year-old Mr Koh will take over from Mr Philip Ng, who will be stepping down as a non-executive director and non-executive chairman from next year.

In a statement issued on Friday, FE Orchard said Mr Ng would also cease to be a member of the Nominating Committee, but will remain as a strategic adviser. It added that the appointment of Mr Koh is a continuing progression in the organisational development of the company and its business growth.

Temasek raises stake in Olam

Temasek raises stake in Olam
04:46 AM Dec 29, 2012
SINGAPORE - Investment giant Temasek Holdings has continued to buy more shares in Olam International, offering further support to the commodity trader under attack from United States-based-short seller Muddy Waters.

Two units controlled by Temasek bought about 24 million shares between Dec 20 and yesterday, lifting its stake to 19 per cent from 18 per cent, according to Olam's regulatory filing with the Singapore Exchange.

Temasek spokesman Stephen Forshaw said yesterday: "In our judgment, (Olam) represents a reasonable attractive investment over the long term."

城镇化唤醒房地产需求?


Prices-of-private-nonlanded-homes-rise-19-in-November


Dualkey-units-popular-among-home-buyers-developer


展望2013:经济会好转 不确定性依然存在


李韻儀:財政懸崖死線到環球股市存隱憂


鄧澤堂: A股ETF類股份可留意


鄧澤堂:滙控年尾引炒作


Which Asian Market Will Outperform in 2013?


Your Stocks Tips For the New Year


Will Smaller banks Mean Better Banks in 2013


INR to Hit 51.50 Against the USD


Still Bullish on China: Pro


Sunday, December 30, 2012

Genting Malaysia US expansion hits legislative bump


The Star Online > Business
Saturday December 29, 2012
Genting Malaysia US expansion hits legislative bump

PETALING JAYA: It would appear that casino and resort operator Genting Malaysia Bhd (GenM) will have to rely on its New York operations to drive its American Dream for the time being, as its plan to expand in the state of Miami has hit a legislative speed bump.

According to a report by Affin Investment Research, GenM's investments in Resorts World Casino New York City (RWNYC) could yield a return of 10% and account for 11% of the group's earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) of RM2.2bil for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2013 (FY13). The research house's estimates are based on an assumption of normalised EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) margins of 45% and a total investment cost of close to US$700mil (RM2.14bil).

Malaysia Pacific banks on Wisma MPL for profits


Malaysia Pacific banks on Wisma MPL for profits
By Roziana Hamsawi
roziana@nstp.com.my
2012/12/29

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Pacific Corp Bhd expects higher rental collection and occupancy rate of its main revenue earner, Wisma MPL here, to help the company make some profits next year.

Malaysia Pacific Corp president Datuk Bill Ch'ng said Wisma MPL's rental income has improved slightly and there are great potentials for further increase.

He said once Wisma MPL has been redeveloped or renovated, rental rates may be raised and higher occupancy can be expected.

Selangor Properties' Q4 net profit down 56pc

Selangor Properties' Q4 net profit down 56pc

2012/12/29

KUALA LUMPUR: Selangor Properties Bhd's net profit in the fourth quarter fell 56 per cent, dragged by losses at its investment holdings.

Its net profit dropped to RM19.28 million in the quarter ended October 31 2012 from RM43.96 million a year ago.

The company has interests in property, education, investment holdings and ventures locally and in Australia.

Selangor Properties said yesterday its revenue fell 13.2 per cent to RM55.89 million from RM64.44 million, while earnings per share eased to 5.61 sen from 12.79 sen.

Property players upbeat, credit resilient economy


Property players upbeat, credit resilient economy
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@nstp.com.my
2012/12/29

HOME DRIVEN: Sector expected to do better next year, thanks to domestic investments
PROPERTY developers are general optimistic on the property market outlook for 2013, as Malaysia targets a five per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) despite weak exports.

Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz has reiterated her optimism that the economy will continue to do well in 2013 despite challenges in the global economy.

The GDP growth target of five per cent will be made possible by the resilience displayed by the domestic economy, fuelled by local private investments.

Betting on Yen to Fall Further in 2013? Think Again


Betting on Yen to Fall Further in 2013? Think Again

The Japanese yen fell to a two-year low on Thursday, continuing its rapid downtrend that started in the middle of last month when new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe first promised to aggressively ease monetary policy.

But analysts warn that the yen could reverse direction and end up firmer by the end of 2013 as the U.S. Federal Reserve will stay ahead of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in monetary easing, which means the dollar will fall at a more rapid pace than the yen.

According to Sean Callow, senior currency strategist with Westpac Bank in Sydney, it is merely a matter of time before the yen climbs back up. He forecasts the currency will strengthen to 79 against the dollar from the current 85 levels by the end of 2013 because the moves by the BOJ will not be aggressive enough to counter safe-haven flows.

5 signs to watch for housing in 2013


5 signs to watch for housing in 2013
We watched for more home sales and rising prices in 2012. Here's our housing market predictions for next year.

Buying gets less affordable
The bust of the housing market five years ago created one of the cheapest times to buy. Across many parts of the U.S., even in some of the priciest markets including New York and Honolulu, it has become cheaper to purchase a home than rent, according to Trulia's Rent vs Buy report. Record-low interest rates on mortgages have also made buying more affordable.

Vincent Tan continues adding TMC Life shares


Vincent Tan continues adding TMC Life shares
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Lee Wen Ai of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 28 December 2012 09:01

KUALA LUMPUR: Tan Sri Vincent Tan Chee Yioun has continued to accumulate shares this month in TMC LIFE SCIENCES BHD [], in which he is a substantial shareholder, via Berjaya Corp Bhd (BCorp), raising his indirect interest in the medical group to 31.83% as at Dec 24.

Tan added some 6.6 million shares via purchases on the open market in December, increasing his stake to 255.4 million shares or 31.83% from 31.01% as at end-November. As at end-October, Tan had an indirect 30.9% interest in TMC Life.

Central bank liquidity major theme in 2013

Central bank liquidity major theme in 2013
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Schroders report  
Friday, 28 December 2012 08:57

Looking into 2013, it is clear that central bank liquidity will continue to play an important role in financial markets with the US Federal Reserve expected to add another US$1 trillion (RM3.07 trillion) to its balance sheet in 2013.

At the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed made it clear that policy will be exceptionally accommodative while the unemployment rate remains above 6.5%. As long as inflation (as measured by the core consumption deflator) is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the committee’s 2% longer-run goal and longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored, the Fed will keep printing.

曾渊沧博士新加坡股市资讯专栏 21.12.12

曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2012年12月21日 曾渊沧博士专栏
1998年香港政府打大鳄入市买股票,被美国政府及西方传媒斥责为干预市场。2008年全球金融海啸后,美国政府也一样入市买股票,其中一只是美国国际集团(AIG)。现在,美国政府把持有的AIG卖掉,赚了很多钱。当年,香港政府把1998年买进来的股票包装成盈富基金(2800)上市,也同样赚了很多钱。大家应该学到一个经验:以后如果再有什么金融风暴式的大灾难,一旦政府入市,大家就应该赶快争着扫货。政府入市一定是在非常时期用非常手法买的非常价,这种灾难价,是十年一遇,人生没有多少个十年。

美国联邦储备局在12月12日公布议息结果,好消息是加强QE3。原本QE3是每月印钞400亿美元买按揭债券,如今每月加印450亿美元买美国政府长期债券。市场上钱多了不止一倍,自然有部份资金会流到新加坡与香港寻找机会。近几周来, 海峡时报指数终于突破3,100点,升上另一个水平。过去一段日子,流入香港的热钱源源不絶。为了不让港元兑美元升破7.75的官订水平,香港金融管理局不断的入市买美元,放出港元。热钱涌到,近一段日子,三、四线股已开始狂炒,炒落后。

颜子伟: 预期中的经济复苏将以什么形式出现成为了大众的焦点


预期中的经济复苏将以什么形式出现成为了大众的焦点
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2012年12月21日 展望
2012年即将完结,回顾过去一年,市场出现了很多惊心动魄的画面,原因是很多问题都还没有获得解决,有些是自2008年遗留下来的问题,即雷曼兄弟走入历史的时候。

雷曼兄弟倒台标示着债务抵押债券(CDO)及信贷违约掉期(CDS)的年代终结,而当产业泡沫爆破时,CDO及CDS令美国经济受挫,并需要政府的紧急援助。 美国政府今时今日的国债达到历史新高,归根究底是因为在后雷曼兄弟的日子里,美国政府前所未有地大量印钞票来拯救经济以及大银行和其他大企业,如通用汽车(General Motors)及美国国际集团(AIG)。

由于长期以来背负着有增无减的庞大赤字 ,政客们认为现在是时候削减开支,但总统却希望加税,不要大幅度削减开支,财政悬崖问题就因此而起。

HELP International Corp.- FY12 Earnings Missed Slightly


HELP International Corp.-
Price Target : 1.88
Last Price : 1.91
FY12 Earnings Missed Slightly

Period    4Q12/FY12

Actual vs.  Expectations    The FY12 net profit of RM13.5m was slightly below expectations and accounted for 90.1% and 88.3% of ours and the street's full-year earnings estimates respectively. The main reasons were due to the 1) higher depreciation and 2) higher opex charges. The group's FY12 revenue, however, was within the street and our expectations.

Dividends   Declared a gross dividend of 2 sen/share, of which the entitlement date would be determined later.

Vasu Menon: Dollar Weakness in 2013: Pro


Vasu Menon: Chinese Markets To Do Well Next Year


羅傑斯:美加稅恐令經濟惡化


美加稅恐令經濟惡化
談到財政懸崖及美國經濟前景,羅傑斯對總統奧巴馬在財崖上的應對還是投下信心的一票。「奧巴馬在做正確的事,問題是債台高築,債務數字在提高,一三年後期美國會浮現更多問題,若處理不當,可能會很恐怖。」他早前預料「墮崖」出現機會不大,但羅傑斯坦言大家要有心理準備,加稅會令情況惡化。

「人們在印銀紙,日本如是、聯儲局亦如是,負債會更高更高,每4、5、6年一次經濟放緩很常見,但下一個(放緩)將更糟,因負債提高了這麼多,你不能透過花很多錢去令情況好轉,通脹會升溫,利率會被調高。就現市況而言,我認為大概很快加息,我想長債息會開始攀升。」

羅傑斯:港元掛鈎美元瘋狂

港元掛鈎美元瘋狂
熱錢持續湧入本港,金管局於上周五進行十月來第二十八次注資,再向銀行體系被動注資50.38億元,累積金額高達1,071.93億元,「商品大王」對於熱錢衝擊港元又有何見解?

人幣或愈升愈有
「我不預期會出現甚麼狀況,這情況在過去持續出現過。我持有港元,港元最後會與美元脫鈎,可能是一三年,可能在一四年,但要在人民幣自由兌換後。港元會在可見將來消失,香港經濟依賴中國,程度比任何地區以及美國都嚴重,跟美元掛鈎的做法是瘋狂的。」他認為港元目前已沒有存在的理由。至於人民幣,他早在○八年預言匯價在5至10年間升幅或可達4倍,相信人仔有機會走上日圓舊路,隨經濟發展,當走向自由兌換,會愈升愈有,亦建議投資者在未來數十年也別沽出人民幣。

羅傑斯:想創富要一路向東


想創富要一路向東
70歲的羅傑斯來自美國,認為亞洲股樓滿是投資機會,相信區內將來在生活質素、科技等範疇可超越西方國家,而創富之路是要一路向東。年輕時未想過生兒育女的他,選擇在○七年與太太及兩個現時年僅9歲及4歲的幼女定居空氣較本港清新的新加坡。

預言21世紀屬於中國、中國將可主宰世界的他,曾豪言不會沽出手上A股,希望女兒在50年後仍持有那些股票,每當內地股市崩潰就買入中資股。

他揀股是由上而下,先看好整個國家,才看好當地股票,就像八五年看好葡萄牙一樣,今日看淡的是美國科網企業,論及一三年中美股市,他則預期:「我寧願投資在中國。」

羅傑斯聖誕貼三寶

羅傑斯聖誕貼三寶
今日平安夜,「商品大王」羅傑斯亦帶來聖誕投資三寶。他在接受本報獨家專訪時預期,熱錢在一三年繼續竄入商品市場。羅傑斯認為,當宏觀經濟危機四伏,最看好農產品,當中更看好棉花及糖。此外,常為黃金護航的他,卻預言金價在一三年繼續調整,認為白銀投資潛力更勝黃金,加上天然氣,將是明年投資三寶。

羅傑斯曾揚言在未來10年寧要實物資產,不要紙資產,在一三年當然也不例外。「商品市場表現當然會比債券標青。你知道吧,當經濟好轉,會刺激商品市場,因為需求增加下形成短缺;如果(央行)印大量銀紙,一旦發生甚麼事情,投資實質資產是自保或圖利的方法。」

「我現在沒有買白銀或黃金,但要是買的話我會揀白銀,比較大部分的商品,農產品是一個更適合涉獵的範疇,也許天然氣吧,我在考慮買天然氣。我手上有黃金,但不會沽出,當價格回落時會增持更多,我現在甚麼都沒有做,只是在緊盯(市場)。」

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胡立阳: 五大股市黄金卖讯


羅杰斯:金價恐續調整

羅杰斯:金價恐續調整

【本報綜合報道】金價在過去數周不斷回落,周二更曾跌至近四個月低位的每盎斯1661.1美元後,繼續無力彈,昨日表現反覆,在1670水平爭持。就連一直是黃金大好友、有商品大王之稱的羅杰斯(Jim Rogers)也呼籲投資者對投資黃金的態度保持謹慎,指金價的調整期可能延續至新年。

印度需求急降
羅杰斯在接受財經網站CNBC訪問時坦言:「總之要小心,現時仍有很多金價好友,包括我在內,但我變得十分謹慎。」他續稱:「黃金正出現調整,該調整期已長達15至16個月,但我認為是正常的,而有可能還要再調整一陣子。」

分享锦集:太平洋与东方缔造双赢●冷眼

分享锦集:太平洋与东方缔造双赢●冷眼
Created 12/16/2012 - 13:05

太平洋与东方(P&O,6009,主板金融股)12月10日宣布签约,以现金2亿7000万令吉,脱售其独资子公司太平洋与东方保险有限公司(POI)的49%股权给南非的上市公司山林集团(SANLAM)。

这项脱售将使太平洋与东方取得1亿7354万令吉的盈利,以该公司2亿4435万股的股数计算,该公司每股将赚71仙。每股净有形资产将由1令吉零1仙增至1令吉64仙。

业务不会大改变

该公司目前的负债额为8800万令吉,假如该公司完全清还债务的话,手头将持有1亿8200万令吉的现金,或是每股拥有74.6仙的现金。

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記:美股反彈 把握機會減持 - 麥嘉華

麥嘉華筆記:美股反彈 把握機會減持 - 麥嘉華

美國能否實現能源自給自足,對此我一直是半信半疑,可是當我最近與一些專家會面時,他們似乎在試圖改變我的想法。此外,這些專家指出,美國生產的天然氣較其他地方便宜,將來可以提升美國製造業的競爭力。

從投資的角度而論,假如專家們的水晶球靈驗,我認為沽空日圓是其中一個最好的做法。換句話說,倘若越來越多策略師和投資者相信上述的一套講法,美元可望轉強,尤其是兌歐元。

美能源自給自足非好事
如果你亦看好美國天然氣生產前景,可以考慮吸納相關的公用股,例如是Consolidated Edison、Questar和NiSource。

Fundamental Analysis: Financial Ratios


Technical Analysis: Spot Chart Pattern


Technical Analysis: Moving Average, Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Retracements


巴菲特财报分析密码:正确看待筹资活动产生的现金流量

正确看待筹资活动产生的现金流量
2012年03月17日00:01 来源:中国证券报 作者:刘建位
http://funds.hexun.com/2012-03-17/139422935.html
  刘建位
  筹资活动是指导致企业股权及债务规模和构成发生变化的活动。如果说现金流量是企业的血液,那么经营活动是内部造血,投资活动就是外部造血,而筹 资活动就是外部输血。筹资活动可以分为两大类,一类是股权筹资,外部投资者投入资金获得股份,或者企业支付资金回购股份,这会导致企业股本及股本溢价的变 化;另一类是债务筹资,包括向银行借款、发行债券以及偿还债务等。通常情况下,应付账款、应付票据等商业应付款等属于经营活动,不属于筹资活动。巴菲特如 何分析企业筹资活动产生的现金流量呢?

Roubini Sees Recession in Periphery Beyond 2013


Roubini Says Fed Inflation Targeting Out the Window


房產超合理價‧投資不值得


房產超合理價‧投資不值得
Created 12/23/2012 - 17:23
當我們在談論產業買賣時,最大的議題是價格,地點再好,如果價格超出合理水平,一樣無法落實交易。

最近幾年,國內不少地區的產業價格翻倍上漲,這些地點比較理想的產業,雖然買家有興趣購買,可是,由於產業價格超出合理價位,達不到銀行估價師的評估,他們無法成功領取貸款,產業買賣因此被迫告吹。

銀行估價比叫價少

一些產業經紀甚至告訴買家,銀行的估價比叫價少10萬令吉是很普遍的情況,這說明今天的轉手產業市場,賣主的叫價已遠遠超出合理水平。有意願購買者,自己必須多挖一些儲蓄或是向至親舉借,以籌足所需的首期屋款數目。

UEM 置地 购地价格合理


UEM 置地 购地价格合理
Created 12/28/2012 - 11:04
目标价:2.06令吉

最新进展

UEM置地控股(UEMLand,5148,主板产业股)于今年10月份宣布,计划与Ascendas集团联手发展总值30亿令吉的综合科技园区。

UEM置地日前落实了上述计划,正式与Ascendas集团签署联营发展合约。

综合科技园区位于努莎再也,工程预计在11个月内完成。

名家筆陣:A股熊市 誰可改變

名家筆陣:A股熊市 誰可改變
二○一二年的中國股市「熊冠世界」已沒有多少懸念,上海綜合指數與去年底基本上打個平手(2200點左右)。有人認為,中國A股得了一種難以救治的絕症,想好起來並非易事。從現實來看,A股好壞,既不隨實體經濟大勢,也與企業業績好壞無關;不能以數量分析也不可理性預測;又不能進行短期炒作更無法進行長期投資。

例如,QFII讓有經驗的外國機構投資者進入中國,他們不僅有豐富的成熟市場操作經驗,也有一支強大研究隊伍。但過去三年,QFII平均虧損幅度高達33%。內地中小投資者進入A股市場,結果更慘不忍睹,如想靠分紅回本,至少要等148年。近三年來,A股二級市場投資者基本都處於這狀況,使他們紛紛逃離股市。

目前仍然有800多家公司在等待上市,因成功上市就能輕易地圈到錢,讓許多上市公司的股東一夜暴富。近三年,內地股市的圈錢性愈來愈嚴重。

散戶失信心 改革挽狂瀾


散戶失信心 改革挽狂瀾
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-12-28]  

 儘管今年在全球主要經濟體中,中國經濟可謂鶴立雞群,受惠經濟回暖及管理層出台眾多措施支持,A股年尾發力追落後,今年截至昨日計微升0.29%,依然在主要經濟體中包尾,許多投資者虧損幅度達到50%甚至更多。有內地經濟學者認為,如果A股沒有根本的制度變革,任何救市只能是治標不治本,當利好氣氛耗盡,又會打回原形。投資者也期盼A股能夠通過制度改革進行刮毒療傷,一個健康穩定透明的市場遠比短期救市更重要。  ■香港文匯報記者 李昌鴻 深圳報道

 5年前A股瘋狂飆升至6,124點,讓許多人如癡如醉,在全球金融危機和歐債危機等衝擊下,A股被打回原形,今年12月初一度跌至1,949點,許多股民損失慘重。據新浪財經11月底公佈的調查顯示,有調查顯示今年來九成投資者虧逾50%,有股民在後悔中痛苦地說:「2012年最不應該幹的就是炒股。」今年來,A股微升0.29%,而同期香港和美國等海外股市卻分別上漲22.7%和7.34%,即使是處於歐債風眼的英、法、德股市,亦分別升7.07%、16.08%及29.81%;日股亦升22.09%。A股完全喪失了中國經濟晴雨表作用。

精英国际集团 财测上修


精英国际集团 财测上修
Created 12/25/2012 - 11:11
【目标价:1.80令吉】

最新进展:

精英国际集团(Help,7236,主板贸服股)末季营业额3010万令吉,按年涨5.8%、按季涨18.4%。净利则报450万令吉,按年涨24.5%,按季大约翻倍。

与2011财年一样,公司宣布每股2仙股息,回酬率1%。

课程已全面展开,因此末季营业额有所改善。员工和折旧开销增加,导致赚幅续受压。

累积2012财年,营业额按年涨8.3%,报1亿1710万令吉,但营运开销增加幅度更大,按年涨20%至1亿100万令吉。净赚幅从上财年的12.7%,跌至11.5%。

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Saturday, December 29, 2012

分析員看好明年港股表現

分析員看好明年港股表現
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-12-29]     我要評論(0)
 ■海通國際證券環球投資策略董事潘鐵珊:美國的財政懸崖還有幾天便到達死線,這將是明年首個影響大市走勢的因素。但「財崖」有望於死線前解決,預料恒指下周已有力挑戰23,000點。另一個困擾大市的因素為控(005)及渣打(2888)的洗黑錢案發展,由於兩間銀行與當地監管機構有望和解,料可進一步消除對港股不利的因素。

 ■耀才證券市務總監郭思治:明年初主導大市的還有A股的走勢,由於A股有望見底回升,故也會惠及港股,而國指表現將優於大市,他較看好內險股,由於資金轉往追逐風險系數較高的股份,建議投資者避開公用股及房託基金。

 ■敦沛證券副總裁黃志陽:明年大市仍會炒作內地刺激經濟的憧憬,其中最具實質支持的當屬「城鎮化」概念,有關板塊如水泥、建築、重工、玻璃股雖累積一定升幅,但仍可看好,資產折讓大的二線內房股亦可望追落後,此外,公路股及電訊設備股同樣可以受惠城鎮化,有關股份在明年初有望接力上升。

Selangor Properties' Q4 earnings fall 56% to RM19.28m

The Star Online > Business
Published: Friday December 28, 2012 MYT 6:35:00 PM

Selangor Properties' Q4 earnings fall 56% to RM19.28m

KUALA LUMPUR: Selangor Properties Bhd's (SelProp) earnings fell 56% to RM19.28mil in the fourth quarter ended Oct 31, 2012 from RM43.96mil a year ago as it was impacted by its investment holdings.

The company, which has interests in property, education, investment holdings and ventures in Australia, said on Friday its revenue fell 13.2% to RM55.89mil from RM64.44mil. Earnings per share were 5.61 sen compared with 12.79 sen.

延續12年升勢?‧金價明年多估見頂


延續12年升勢?‧金價明年多估見頂
Created 12/28/2012 - 18:26
(香港28日訊)聯儲局主席伯南克的“終極QE"料導致美元續弱,有利金價再創新高,惟能否延續12年升勢則有待觀察,各大行亦對金價預測分歧。

本年金價幾經波動,首季受歐債惡化影響,刺激金價升至即市高位1790.75美元;第三季歐洲中行承諾無限買債,令黃金重拾升勢,直至第四季美國財政懸崖談判膠著,投資者寧手持現金。

今年全年黃金回報僅6%,為5年以來最低,不及美股、亞幣及農產品。截至今晨,現貨金價報1,661.11美元。

3大计划带动 马帕斯冀明年转亏为盈

3大计划带动 马帕斯冀明年转亏为盈

(吉隆坡28日讯)马帕斯集团(MPCORP,6548,主板產业股)冀望在2013年转亏为盈。马帕斯集团总裁兼首席执行员庄崇宝希望该集团业绩可在2013年获得改善,有信心在明年转亏为盈。

马帕斯集团2013財政年首季(截至9月30日)净亏损从282万令吉,按年扩大87.05%至528万令吉;营业额从318万令吉,按年跌2.36%至310万令吉。

庄崇宝表示,「可协助在明年获利的因素包括数项发展计划,如MPL大楼、位于柔佛依斯干达特区的亚太贸易与博览城(APTEC)以及Lake Hill Resort。」

多个亚太市场红盘 马股衝破1680再创新高


多个亚太市场红盘 马股衝破1680再创新高

吉隆坡28日讯)隨著欧美资金流入亚洲,市场看好美国可解决「財政悬崖」问题,以及多个亚洲市场週五封关而进行橱窗粉饰,推动亚洲股市普遍走高。其中,富时大马综合指数更在今日一度衝上1686.70点,再创歷史新高水平,站上1680点水平。 同时,综指有望在下週一(12月31日)以最高水平结束2012年交易。

週五,亚洲股市普遍上涨,其中更有3个区域股市成功创下多个月新高,包括日经指数、悉尼普通指数和新加坡海峡时报指数。

日经指数延续新首相上任以来的涨势,上涨0.7%,以10395.18封关,创下21个月最高闭市;澳洲受矿业股带动,起0.50%,收在4671.30点,为18个月最高;新加坡海峡时报指数则上升0.25%,以3191.801点掛收,写下16个月新高。

Iskandar: Boon or bane for Singapore real estate?


Iskandar: Boon or bane for Singapore real estate?
by Tan Chin Keong 04:45 AM Dec 28, 2012
Iskandar Malaysia was launched in November 2006 with the aim of developing the southern Johor region into a strong and sustainable metropolis of international standing.

With a total area of 2,217 sq km, the region will have five flagship zones including the Johor Baru City Centre, Nusajaya and Senai-Skudai, and will incorporate work, live and play elements. A number of key projects have been planned to attract investments into Iskandar, and some have been successfully completed, such as the Johor Premium Outlet and LegoLand.

According to recent reports, as of last September, Iskandar had recorded nearly RM100 billion (S$40 billion) in investments, about 40 per cent of which came from foreign sources.

金务大 争新合约

金务大 争新合约
Created 12/28/2012 - 10:57
目标价:4.90令吉

最新进展

金务大(Gamuda,5398,主板建筑股)负责的双溪毛糯-加影捷运线地下隧道工程进度大致顺利,集团也订购了10台隧道掘进机,为即将动工的7条隧道工程做好准备。

行家建议

金务大董事部公布捷运工程顺利进行同时,也宣布房产业务在2013财年首季录得3亿3000万令吉的销售额,符合我们全年预测的13亿5000万令吉。

櫥窗粉飾衝刺‧大選因素攔路‧馬股改寫1686新高


櫥窗粉飾衝刺‧大選因素攔路‧馬股改寫1686新高
Created 12/28/2012 - 17:24

(吉隆坡28日訊)馬股綜指今日直破歷史新高,最高站上1686.70點,在還剩一個交易日就進入2013年之際,分析員預期馬股在全國大選前的2013年首季走勢,料落在狹窄波幅游走。

分析員認為,中短期內,馬股將是個交易導向市場,並建議在綜指1610點以下趁低買進,1710點以上水平逢高賣出。

由於海外市場沒有太大利空消息,加上國內年杪櫥窗粉飾效應持續發酵,使今日馬股開始不久就猛沖,綜指一度漲升12.54點,或是0.74%至1686.70點,再創下新的歷史新高。全天收市時,馬股綜指漲升7.17點,至1681.33點掛收。

醞釀私有化?‧楊忠禮電力母股憑單齊揚


醞釀私有化?‧楊忠禮電力母股憑單齊揚
Created 12/28/2012 - 12:02
(吉隆坡27日訊)現金充裕的楊忠禮電力(YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建計劃組)近期將派息率降低至和母公司楊忠禮機構(YTL,4677,主板貿服組)相同水平,分析員認為這是為楊忠禮電力私有化鋪路。

馬銀行研究表示,隨著這兩家公司的周息率同樣為2%,意味著楊忠禮機構若以1換1比例全面收購楊忠禮電力,而後者的小股東在換得楊忠禮機構的股票後,周息率不至於大幅降低。

該行認為,楊忠禮機構可能重施當年私有化楊忠禮洋灰的故計。

Eversendai increases stake in S’pore’s Technics Oil & Gas


Eversendai increases stake in S’pore’s Technics Oil & Gas
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012

Written by Ho Ching-Ling of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 28 December 2012 10:50

KUALA LUMPUR: Construction and structural steel fabricator Eversendai Corp Bhd has further increased its stake in Singapore’s Technics Oil & Gas Ltd by undertaking a share subscription of 10.7 million new shares for a total consideration of S$11.24 million (RM28 million).

In a statement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, the group said it had entered into a subscription agreement with the Singapore listed oil & gas fabricator to subscribe for 10.7 million new ordinary shares at S$1.05 a piece, representing approximately 4.77% of Technics’ enlarged issued and paid-up capital.

MIDF: Business as usual, rules will not change overnight

MIDF: Business as usual, rules will not change overnight
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012

Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 28 December 2012 11:02

KUALA LUMPUR: Whatever the outcome of the  general election, business will go on as usual as most policies currently in place have evolved over many years, says MIDF Research head Zulkifli Hamzah.

“Our laws adopt the best practices and elements from around the globe. Therefore, we do not expect the rules of the game to change overnight.

財智語陸:A股後市跑贏港股 - 陳永陸


財智語陸:A股後市跑贏港股 - 陳永陸

港股昨日先升後回軟,雖然創超過一年新高,但恒指只能於22600點水平收市。今日期指結算,相信恒指會繼續窄幅徘徊。當然,大家會覺得A股昨日雖然出現回吐,但聖誕假期累積如此大的升幅,為何不能為港股帶來刺激作用。

首先,美國仍需要就財政懸崖問題討論,在此憂慮下,港股自然難以大幅上升。另外,A股上升某程度是追落後,因為相對H股或歐美股市之表現,A股今年的表現的確令人失望,所以當資金於11月大舉流入的時候,A股被大幅推高亦屬正常,但不代表資金會同時大舉推高H股或港股。

Affin Research maintains Buy on Genting Malaysia at RM3.59

The Star Online > Business
Published: Friday December 28, 2012 MYT 8:47:00 AM
Affin Research maintains Buy on Genting Malaysia at RM3.59

KUALA LUMPUR: Affin Investment Research is maintaining a Buy on Genting Malaysia at RM3.59 with a target price of RM4.

It said on Friday the stock has underperformed the broader market by 14% year-to-date as pedestrian earnings (lower hold on gaming bets), legislative speed bum in Miami and Malaysia's impending General Election overshadowed Resorts World New York's (RWNY) maiden full year earnings contribution.

SANI HAMID: 'Best Time Now To Accumulate Equities'

SANI HAMID: 'Best Time Now To Accumulate Equities'

Written by Sani Hamid (Financial Alliance)
Sunday, 23 December 2012 07:00
Excerpts from a monthly investment outlook by Financial Alliance (FA) sent to its clients recently.

• We believe that the fiscal cliff debacle could have an impact on markets.

As we approach the deadline in early January, we could see markets slide lower as investors adopt a neutral position going into the event with the thin yearend market conditions potentially aggravating the swings.

But overall, our view remains the same – any decline, even due to the fiscal cliff, will merely be part of the Stage 3 consolidation that is taking place.

Cautious outlook


Cautious outlook
Personal Finance

Written by Goola Warden of The Edge Singapore  
Thursday, 27 December 2012 00:00

ANALYSTS are turning cautious on the outlook for next year. In a Nov 19 report, JPMorgan says it believes there is downside to market forecasts for both the Singapore economy as well as the overall market revenue and earnings outlook. "Sales and earnings forecasts have flatlined since May 2012, while EPS [earnings per share] forecasts are now back to pre-GFC [global financial crisis] levels," the report points out. "Risk now exists, in our view, as we believe the Street is behind the curve in downgrading the macro outlook for Singapore. This should feed downward revisions of sales and earnings estimates for the market as a whole."

曹仁超:A股明年3月前随时见底 资金将舍楼市入股市


曹仁超:A股明年3月前随时见底 资金将舍楼市入股市

新快报讯有“香港股神”之称的曹仁超日前撰文表示,美联储2009年3月起推出QE后,股票、黄金及香港房地产皆有出色表现。2009年以股票表现最出色、2010年黄金最威风、2011年至今房地产最火爆。美国低息政策将维持到2015年,相信2013年应该是新兴股市回升期,因为成熟的股票市场例如美国到今年10月止已过度抽升,未来一年应该玩“追落后”。

  2004年中至2006年中中国人民银行(下称央行)增加货币供应,引发2005年至2007年A股狂升。2008年11月至2009年8月货币供应狂升。A股上升后令楼价狂升,2009年8月起央行不得不重新收紧货币供应,直到2012年6月起央行又再次增加货币供应。理论上A股应在今年9月至明年3月任何一个月份内见底,并相信这次资金不是流向楼市而是流向股市。

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 24.12.2012 (Property)


罗杰斯推荐明年投资”三宝“称明年A股不会大跌


Outlook 2013: Euro-Zone Crisis


Philippines-positioning-itself-as-Asias-next-gaming-hub


Luxury-market-insulated-from-ongoing-global-economic-woes-analysts


HELP International Corp - In Need of Help

HELP International Corp -
Price Target : 1.93
Last Price : 1.91
In Need of Help

HELP's FY12  net  profit  of  RM13.5m  was  below  our  and  consensus  estimates,  at 86.5%  and  78.5%  of  both  full-year  forecasts  respectively  owing  to  the  weaker-than-expected  performance  from  its  Fraser  Business  Park  campus.  Having  said that, we believe the numbers would rebound in FY13 and hence, make no changes to  our  forecasts  for  now.  Maintain  NEUTRAL,  with  our FV  unchanged  at  RM1.93, based on 10x FY13f PE and a FY13f net cash per share of RM0.46.

FY12 numbers flat. HELP's FY12 revenue jumped 8.3% y-o-y to RM117.1m, buoyed by an estimated higher enrolment base of 13k as of October 2012. EBIT, however, dipped 0.7%  y-o-y  to  RM21.4m  due  to  high  depreciation  expenses  from  its  Fraser  campus, which has yet to achieve economies of scale as it had only had 1.2k students on board.

分享锦集:第一控股丑小鸭变白天鹅


分享锦集:第一控股丑小鸭变白天鹅
Created 12/23/2012 - 13:05
第一控股工业(FACBInd,2984,主板工业产品股)12月12日宣布,以1亿3100万令吉,脱售两项资产,取得将近6800万令吉的盈利,每股净赚约80仙。

这项消息,使投资者对该股刮目相待,股价在短短的数天内,上涨了1倍。

该公司的股价,数年来都在50仙的水平波动。当其他股项节节挺升时,该股却欲振乏力,落后大势甚远。

金融海啸大出血

实际上,从资产产价值的角度看,该公司的股票,数年来都被严重低估。最主要的原因,是该公司的业绩,乏善可陈,提到第一控股工业,大部分投资者都会嗤之以鼻,认为这是一只劣股,因此不屑一顾,这是导致该股股价长期不振的主因。

China Market To Rebound In 2013: Wong Sui Jau


PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 18.12.2012 (Transportation)


羅傑斯睇好中資股想揸過世

睇好中資股想揸過世


七十歲的羅傑斯來自美國,認為亞洲股樓滿是投資機會,相信區內將來在生活質素、科技等範疇可超越西方國家,而創富之路是要一路向東。年輕時未想過生兒育女的他,選擇在○七年與太太及兩個現時年僅九歲及四歲的幼女定居空氣較本港清新的新加坡。

他預言21世紀屬於中國、中國將可主宰世界。他曾豪言不會沽出手上A股,希望女兒在五十年後仍持有那些股票,每當內地股市崩潰就買入中資股。他揀股是由上而下,先看好整個國家,才看好當地股票,就像八五年看好葡萄牙一樣,今日看淡的是美國科網企業,論及一三年中美股市,他則預期:「我寧願投資在中國。」

羅傑斯明年至like農產品


羅傑斯明年至like農產品


今日平安夜,「商品大王」羅傑斯亦帶來聖誕投資三寶。他在接受本報獨家專訪時預期,熱錢在一三年繼續竄入商品市場。多年來充當商品代言人的羅傑斯認為,當宏觀經濟危機四伏,最看好農產品期貨,當中更看好棉花及糖,此外,常為黃金護航的他,卻預言金價在一三年繼續調整,認為白銀投資潛力更勝黃金,加上天然氣,將是明年商品投資三寶。

羅傑斯曾高調揚言在未來十年寧要實物資產,不要紙資產,在一三年當然也不例外。「商品市場表現當然會比債券標青。你知道吧,當經濟好轉,會刺激商品市場,因為需求增加下形成短缺;如果(央行)印大量銀紙,一旦發生甚麼事情,投資實質資產是自保或圖利的方法。」

谁来拉动2013中国经济 ?


What Is The Intrinsic Value Of A Stock?

What Is The Intrinsic Value Of A Stock?
August 16 2012
Intrinsic value is a topic discussed in philosophy wherein the worth of an object or endeavor is derived in-and-of-itself - or in layman's terms, independent of other extraneous factors. A stock also is capable of holding intrinsic value, outside of what its perceived market price is, and is often touted as an important aspect to consider by value investors when picking a company to invest in.

刘建位:巴菲特最重要的投资秘诀:逆向投资

巴菲特最重要的投资秘诀:逆向投资

作者 刘建位 来源 第一财经日报 2012-02-18
巴菲特如此概括他的投资成功之道:逆向投资。
http://www.yicai.com/news/2012/02/1439336.html

在证券市场呆了十几年,发现绝大部分人最关心的:市场未来走势会如何?
其实这是人之常情。每个女人都非常关心未来流行的时尚是什么?每个男人都非常关心报纸电视最大的新闻是什么?
一句话,我们都特别在意别人都在做什么,然后调整我们的行为,和大多数人保持一致。用河南豫剧《朝阳沟》里的一句唱词就是:庄稼活儿不用学,人家咋着咱咋着。

Prof ChanYanChong-Commentary 21.12.12

21 DECEMBER 2012
Prof Chan Yan Chong Column
By Prof Chan Yan Chong

The Hong Kong government’s intervention in the stock market in 1998 when speculators attacked the financial system invited criticisms from the West. In 2008, however, the US government did the same thing by interfering when it bailed out AIG (American International Group). Years after the bailout, the US government made a lot of money selling shares of AIG.

Similarly, the Hong Kong government also made a lot of money after it listed the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (HK: 2800), which is a trust comprising shares that the Hong Kong government bought in 1998. We should all learn from past experiences that the stock market tends to bottom after government intervention.

David Ng (Hwang Investment ) Stay safe in 2013


曾淵滄教路 18.12.12: 中電配股為「走出去」長遠前景可看好


中電配股為「走出去」長遠前景可看好
去年開始,中電(002)就不斷宣揚今後電費將大幅增加,理由是香港特區政府對環保的要求提高,中電將改用天然氣來發電,而天然氣來自港府與中國中央政府安排的「西氣東輸」計劃,燃料成本將急增三倍。

不過,上個星期中電公布電費加幅僅為5.9%,這是低過之前所宣揚的將超過10%的增幅,中電以唱高造低的手法來打這場公關戰,用時,中電也宣布此次加電費只針對用電量較多者,用電量少者電費不加,有35%的家庭用戶將不會加電費,中電這麼做,相信比較容易獲得市民的接受。因此,這次加電費,民間反對的聲音不強,只有一批逢加必反的政治人物,循例反對。

我認為,要對抗中電加電費的最佳方法,莫過於去買一些中電的股票,這是最佳的對沖電費加價的方法。

大英Blog物館 18.12.12:年尾回顧投資得失 宜終極樂觀 又不失務實

年尾回顧投資得失 宜終極樂觀 又不失務實
哥連斯的經典作品《從A到A+》(Good to Great, J. Collins)中,令人印象最深者,非史托迪(J. Stockdale)莫屬。史托迪與營商、投資,並無半點關係,但他成名的環境,比商界和股市,殘酷萬倍:越共戰俘營。

史托迪是越戰時期,美國海軍飛行員,戰爭初期不幸出事,座駕墜毀,自己被俘,前後被囚共七年餘。落入敵手,當然不是請客吃飯,時而遊街示眾,時而捉去打一身,受盡折磨。尤其史托迪時為海軍上校,俘虜中軍階最高,具宣傳效果,自然被重點打擊。

樂觀戰俘最易喪命

2年淨利有望增36%‧沙肯石油購Seadrill受看好

2年淨利有望增36%‧沙肯石油購Seadrill受看好
Created 12/27/2012 - 19:05
(吉隆坡27日訊)沙肯石油(SKPETRO,5218,主板貿服組)獻議以近90億令吉收購Seadrill公司所有鑽油井,掌控全球鑽油井市場的51%份額,惟此項收購案受大馬評估機構監督,馬銀行研究認為這項監督行動合理,因其交易龐大使其負債比倍增,不過仍對收購案持正面看法。

負債比倍增

馬銀行研究看好這項積極的全球拓展計劃,有望使2014與2015財政年淨利增長36%。

銷售放緩‧面臨轉型‧產業領域挑戰重重


銷售放緩‧面臨轉型‧產業領域挑戰重重
Created 12/27/2012 - 19:08
(吉隆坡27日訊)產業公司第三季表現黯淡無光,突顯銷售放緩和工程進展緩慢的疲態已浮出台面,分析員相信,產業領域明年的挑戰重重,因市場正轉向可負擔型產業,令明年的產業推介和銷售恐不如今年。

正轉向可負擔型產業

豐隆研究指出,產業公司第三季表現平平,僅實達集團(SPSETIA,8664,主板產業組)超越預期。高美達(GLOMAC,5020,主板產業組)、KLCC產業(KLCCP,5089,主板產業組)、馬星集團(MAHSING,8583,主板產業組),表現符合預期;順利實業(K S L,5038,主板產業組)、U E M置地(UEMLAND,5148,主板產業組)、游禮發產業(YNHPROP,3158,主板產業組),更不幸落後預期。

馬航還能高飛嗎?(完結篇)‧烏雲罩頂‧馬航當自強

馬航還能高飛嗎?(完結篇)‧烏雲罩頂‧馬航當自強
Created 12/27/2012 - 19:30
馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服組)對於天空中的激戰,不可能沒有感覺,廉航的天空競爭劇烈,像馬航這類全面服務航空(FSC),營運方面面臨重重挑戰,加上區域吹起廉航逆風,馬航祭出發附加股籌措31億令吉資金,究竟拿出甚麼“路線圖"說服股東,類似的集資行動能因應當前挑戰嗎?

馬航目前欠缺一個綿密的行動方略,以致很多人對馬航的發新股集資,並沒有多大信心,股東與投資大眾只能從一鱗半爪中管中窺豹,認為這項行動缺乏指引與說服力!

不與廉航正面交鋒?

資金狂追A股ETF

資金狂追A股ETF
港股長假後虎頭蛇尾
2012年12月28日
【明報專訊】內地A股聖誕假期表現強勢,外資積極追入A股ETF,昨日港股復市,有3隻A股ETF更打入十大成交額排行榜,而港股則未能跟上假期間的A股升幅。雖然有個別銀行、內房股及家電股上揚,但無助推動恒指,有基金經理直言已準備收爐,臨近年尾不會再有大動作,港股勢難暴升。

市場對美國參眾兩院會商解決財政懸崖,抱持觀望態度,美股假期後復市早段牛皮,截至昨晚11時,道指跌11點,報13,102點。匯控(0005)ADR(美國買賣預託證券)平穩,比港股收市價升0.23元,報82.18元。

Optimism Returning to Chinese Markets


华尔街银行股大涨 员工乐不起来


近七成银行家看高房地产市场风险


Home-Price Rise Sets Up Positive 2013


Biggest Oil Impact: Risk-On, Risk-Off Mentality


Housing Barometer


Bank Plays for 2013


2013年的亚洲 你知道的或者不知道的事情


安倍再度当选首相 市场“安倍效应”初显


安倍效应推低日元 股市大涨


2012年究竟是什麼貨幣兌美元升值最多?


安倍施壓,日圓貶勢將持續到什麼價位?日本出口業大復活?


Friday, December 28, 2012

热门股 杨忠礼电力上挑RM1.58


热门股 杨忠礼电力上挑RM1.58
Created 12/28/2012 - 11:18
周四间,交投活络的杨忠礼电力(YTLPowr,6742,主板基建股)平开迎市后高收,盘中行情显现一段技术反弹趋势。杨忠礼电力闭市时收在1.57令吉,按日涨6仙或3.97%,全天波幅在8仙间,介于1.51-1.59令吉间。相信短期内会上挑1.58-1.68令吉间的阻力关口。

股价落后大市大选后料反弹 抢购优质建筑股良机


股价落后大市大选后料反弹 抢购优质建筑股良机
Created 12/28/2012 - 09:44
(吉隆坡27日讯)鉴于大马大选日期未定,分析员相信建筑公司的股价在短期内将受到限制,不过,这反而是投资者进场的机会。

根据马交所资料显示,大马建筑公司于今年首9个月,录得总值250亿令吉的合约,当中210亿令吉为来自国内,最大贡献者为巴生谷捷运工程。

尽管如此,建筑领域股项表现仍被评为“低于大市”,因为政府是大部分基建合约的领导单位,让尚未知道大选日期的投资者不敢轻举妄动。

是否脱售贸易风20% 传土展创投两周内定案

是否脱售贸易风20% 传土展创投两周内定案
Created 12/28/2012 - 10:51
(吉隆坡27日讯)有消息称,土展创投(FGV,5222,主板种植股)将在两三周内,决定是否脱售手上的贸易风(Tws,4421,主板消费产品股)20%股权。

《星报》引述消息,表示贸易风的股权对土展创投具有策略性意义,所以管理层迄今未决定是否脱售。

CEO休假目前在伦敦休假的土展创投总裁兼总执行长拿督沙比利,暂时无法回应此事。

Eversendai buys into Technics Oil

The Star Online > Business
Friday December 28, 2012
Eversendai buys into Technics Oil

PETALING JAYA: Eversendai Corp Bhd has entered into a subscription agreement with Singapore-based Technics Oil and Gas Ltd to subscribe for an aggregate of 10.7 million new shares of the latter amounting to S$11.24mil (RM28.18mil).

The proposed subscription of S$1.05 (RM2.63) per ordinary share represented a premium of about 2% to the weighted average price per ordinary share for trades done for the full market day on Dec 26 on the Singapore Exchange, the company said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia.

Felda Global Ventures Holdings in for huge returns


The Star Online > Business
Friday December 28, 2012
Felda Global Ventures Holdings in for huge returns

ROI estimated at RM390.2mil for its 20% stake in Tradewinds

By HANIM ADNAN
nem@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGVH) is expected to reap a hefty return on investment (ROI) estimated at RM390.2mil or 188% from its strategic acquisition of a 20% stake in Tradewinds (M) Bhd in just over a two-year period, said a source close to Tradewinds.

From January 2010 to date, FGVH has also received net dividends amounting to RM46.3mil from its equity stake in Tradewinds.

家常股事:領匯仍可趁低吸納


家常股事:領匯仍可趁低吸納



致力提升資產回報
由於外圍經濟表現改善,現時投資者願意承受更多風險,資金由防守性板塊流走至周期性板塊,拖累防守性股份近期表現落後大市,領匯(00823)屬其中之一。領匯旗下物業商戶的業務與日常生活息息相關,不太受經濟周期影響,受惠於商戶組合不斷優化,租金持續錄得增長。

內地銀行家料暴利不再

內地銀行家料暴利不再


內銀前景仍備受挑戰,《中國銀行家調查報告》顯示,約七成受訪銀行家認為未來三年,其所在銀行的收入及利潤增長率將低於20%,樓市則被視為主要風險。

隨着利率市場化的推進,銀行間競爭日趨激烈,報告指銀行家普遍調低增長預期,各內銀正加快轉型步伐。

樓市視為主要風險

至於房地產市場調整帶來的風險,近68%受訪銀行家認為屬最重要;而存在着期限長、規模大及用途監督困難等問題的地方政府融資平台債務風險,亦有近六成銀行家表達關注。

外資捧A股 後市看內資與中央


外資捧A股 後市看內資與中央
欄名:社評

本港掛牌的A股ETF昨急升,近月累升較內地股市猶甚,反映外資對A股樂觀程度遠超內地投資者。惟內地A股能否重返牛市,關鍵非外資而是內資,尤須關注內資能否重燃信心、中央新領導層會否因股市升勢過急而出手緩抑。

外力推動有限 A股要看內力

本港聖誕休市兩天,其間內地A股累升近百分之三,刺激多隻本港A股交易所買賣基金(ETF)在港股昨復市後急升。外資已連續十五周流入中國基金,令個別基金現價炒至較資產淨值高近一成,顯示外資看好A股,樂觀猶勝內資。

需求增 航運股有望翻身

需求增 航運股有望翻身

【本報訊】航運及相關股份受惠油價自今年上半年高位回落,以及航運公司繼續維護運費避免競爭,加上明年市場需求有溫和增長,市場普遍預期明年航運相關股業績表現較今年有所改善。

維護運費免競爭
今年初燃油價格每噸升至貼近750美元,下半年已持續回落至近期600美元左右水平。國泰君安國際分析師宋然指出,油價於今年上半年高位後回落,明年初油價可望在較高基數下錄得按年跌幅。至於供求狀況仍然不平衡,他估計明年集裝箱貨船淨運力估計上升9%,至2015年增幅才會降至1.8%;至於明年全球對集裝箱需求增長為6.6%。但由於船公司之間維護運價,於淡季收回部份運力,相信明年繼續可以避免運價過低的情況出現。

實戰理論:高追房託損手難免 - 沈振盈

實戰理論:高追房託損手難免 - 沈振盈

資金流向的大趨勢主導着市況的運行,很明顯,財政懸崖的不明朗因素,只是阻礙大市上升的噪音,資金入市才是主導後市的最重要因素。

恒指早段高開之後,雖然即市作出回吐,令升幅收窄,但回吐壓力始終有限。加上日股連升數日,仍未有斷氣的迹象,港股有望在年結前繼續挑戰23000點水平。

環球資金流向的轉變越來越明顯,首先,是風險胃納上升,就算財政懸崖進展有阻滯,美股回吐,金價也未能大幅回升。資金繼續從避險資產流走,轉向股市及其他風險資產。

日本經濟仍是乏善足陳,前景暗淡,反而日股可以與中、港股市媲美,升勢不絕。

Q&M makes S$22.7m bid for SMG

Q&M makes S$22.7m bid for SMG
Dental group plans to expand into healthcare, leveraging SMG's existing team and operational structure
 by Conrad Raj 04:45 AM Dec 28, 2012
SINGAPORE - The Q&M Dental Group is expanding into medical specialist healthcare practice by making a S$22.65-million bid for the Catalist-listed Singapore Medical Group (SMG).

SMG's main shareholders - its Chairman Felix Huang and Chief Executive Xiaoyan Baumann Geb Bi - have agreed to sell their 72.57-per-cent stake to Q&M for 13.23 cents a share, or 41 per cent above SMG's last traded price of 9.4 cents.

Under the takeover code, the deal triggers a mandatory general offer by Q&M for the rest of SMG shares at 13.23 cents.

Q&M plans to finance the acquisition of SMG from internal funds and current credit lines, as well as the placement of 55 million new Q&M shares at 30.5 cents each, or a total of S$16.77 million, to sibling private practitioners, Dr Kelvin Koh Shunjie and Dr Felicia Koh Shuhui.

1.28億擴國內外業務‧舊街場前景樂觀

1.28億擴國內外業務‧舊街場前景樂觀
Created 12/27/2012 - 18:15

(吉隆坡27日訊)舊街場(OLDTOWN,5201,主板貿服組)發3千300萬新股籌資6千440萬令吉,使其現金增至1億2千870萬令吉,以用於國內國際業務擴展用途,肯納格研究認為其前景依舊樂觀,維持“超越大市"評級不變。

馬新印中將開更多新店

該行認為,其前景樂觀,主要建立在強勁的快速移動物品區塊的成長,特別是新興的區域市場如中國、南國與越南;同時,在馬、新、印尼與中國將開更多新店。

配合其財政年明年由3月杪截止修正至12月截止,下財政年調整後的淨利預測為5千280萬令吉與5千980萬令吉。維持“超越大市"評級,目標價2令吉40仙不變。

YTL Power shares surge on privatisation talk


YTL Power shares surge on privatisation talk
By Goh Thean Eu
gohtheaneu@nstp.com.my
2012/12/28

KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Power International Bhd shares closed four per cent higher yesterday, its highest single-day gain in seven months, as market speculates that the utility company could be ripe for a privatisation move by its parent YTL Corp Bhd.

The stock rose six sen to RM1.57 with more than 16.6 million shares traded. Trading of its shares were the most active since May 15 this year.

推行36.6亿私下配股活动 马银行加强资本基础


推行36.6亿私下配股活动 马银行加强资本基础

(吉隆坡27日讯)马来亚银行有限公司(MAYBANK,1155,金融组)于今年10月份宣布,它所推行一项高达12亿美元(36亿6000万令吉)的私下配股创下有史以来最大配股活动,而在市场上掀起了一阵涟猗,有人推测募集的资金将用于竞购GE资本在泰国大城银行的25%股权。

据大马最大的银行集团---马来亚银行较后澄清称,私下配售实际上是一个积极的模式,以支撑其股本提前实施巴塞尔3。

马银行早期的私下配股额是3亿股,较后因反应热烈,有关售股提高至4亿1200万股或占了该银行的5%缴足股本。

有关献购价介于8.80令吉与8.90令吉。

Ascendas REIT :Still Room for Yield Compression (KE)


Ascendas REIT
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: SGD2.39
Target price: SGD2.60 (from. SGD2.65)
Still Room for Yield Compression

Business Park exposure not fatal. AREIT’s business/science park portfolio constitutes 38% of our FY3/14 GAV and gross revenue. We noted that there is an onslaught of ~7m sqft of new known supply in 2012-2015. The majority of this supply (~81%) is in the central region (One North and Mapletree Business City), where AREIT has ten out of 23 properties. According to our estimates, the central region assets comprises ~40% of AREIT’s business park revenue and NLA. Predominantly, AREITs business park portfolio (~60%) is still concentrated in the east and west region, namely the International Business Park (IBP) and Changi Business Park (CBP).

SG Residential Property: Spate of privatizations could come (OCBC)

Given the current environment of low borrowing costs and steep trading discounts to RNAV for high-end developers, it is likely that we could see a spate of privatization activity ahead. We believe potential candidates for privatization include those are trading significantly below RNAV, have a low public float, and have major holders with stakes above 50%. These criteria yield two additional candidates for privatization: Ho Bee and Wheelock. For physical home sales, we saw ~20.9K new homes (excluding landed and EC) sold by developers year to date, of which the bulk (74%) are mass-market units. As interest rates remain low, we believe that continued monetary liquidity in the market would underpin demand for mass-market units.

Indomobil Sukses Internasional : Gallant Venture to takeover IMAS (DBSV)

Indomobil Sukses Internasional
BUY Rp5,300 JCI : 4,315.86
Price Target : 12-Month Rp 6,100
Gallant Venture to takeover IMAS

• Gallant Venture to gain control over IMAS
• No material impact expected on IMAS’ fundamentals
• Maintain Buy with Rp6,100 TP

GV to acquire 52.35% of IMAS stake. Gallant Venture Ltd (GV) announced its intention to acquire Cipta Sarana Duta Perkasa (CS)’s entire 52.35% stake in IMAS. GV and CS entered into a conditional sales and purchase agreement on 13 December 2012, which would see the acquisition completed on or before 13 June 2013 (if all conditions are met and subject to GV shareholder approval).

MIIF : Winding down is the best option (DBSV)


MIIF
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.65 (Prev S$ 0.58)
Winding down is the best option

• Board initiates orderly process to divest stakes in underlying assets to realise true values
• Process could be lengthy and difficult though
• Special dividend from payout of excess cash in the near term should help support share price
• Maintain HOLD with higher TP of S$0.65

Current structure not best suited to realise value . Following the completion of a strategic review, the Board of Directors of MIIF are of the opinion that its current structure may not be suitable to realise the value of its underlying businesses, and that the stock is likely being undervalued by the market. As a result of the higherthan- ideal cost of equity, MIIF’s strategy of driving growth by investing in Asian infrastructure businesses also cannot be executed properly.

Hai-O Enterprise - MLM Firmly on Growth Track (OSK)

Hai-O Enterprise
Fair Value RM2.35
Previous RM2.16
MLM Firmly on Growth Track

Hai-O's 1HFY13 results beat  consensus  and  our  estimates.  Revenue  and  core earnings were 18.5% and 34.5% higher  y-o-y, boosted by the recovery of its MLM division. EBIT margin expanded due to healthy topline growth and better sales of higher  margin  products.  We  are  revising  upward  our  FY13  and  FY14  numbers  in view of stronger-than-expected earnings. Maintain NEUTRAL, but with a new FV ofRM2.35, based on 12x FY13 EPS.

Building Materials - Steel Struggling Still, Cement In A Sweet Spot


Building Materials -
Steel Struggling Still, Cement In A Sweet Spot

Mixed picture in China. The near-term picture on China is mixed. On one hand, demand growth is projected to be sub-par. On the other hand, the long overdue consolidation may finally gain more traction, capping supply growth.

Gloomier picture in Europe. The near-term outlook on Europe is gloomier with falling demand while production cuts are sticky to the downside due to intervention by governments. WSA projected demand continue to contract on continued slowdown in construction and manufacturing activities on the back of austerity measures by governments as well as a collapse in consumer spending on sustained high unemployment rates. However, production cuts will lag due to the goverments’ intervention.

Noble Group: Leveraged to a China recovery (KE)

Noble Group
Buy(from Hold)
Share price: SGD1.18
Target price: SGD1.48 (from SGD1.42)
Leveraged to a China recovery

Most leveraged China economic activity. We see Noble as most leveraged to an improvement in China’s economic activity in 2013, especially industrial output. Excluding its oil & gas business, China is its single biggest market, which we estimate account for more than 30% of total group tonnage. Its importance as a commodity supplier is also likely a key consideration when China Investment Corp (CIC) took up a substantial stake in 2009.

Important supplier of coal, iron ore. While on-ground assets in China are quite light (limited to oilseed crushing and storage), Noble is one of the largest supplier of hard commodities such as coal and iron ore into China, sourced from other countries. Improved demand in 2013 could mark a significant turnaround in profitability.

Technology - Headwinds ahead for 2013


Technology -
Headwinds ahead for 2013

We are maintaining our NEUTRAL rating on the Technology sector. To recap, all the tech companies under our coverage reported 3Q12 results, which came in below the street as well as our expectations. The visibility of the industry is murky for now as we understand that industry players are still adopting a wait-and-see approach in light of the global economic uncertainties. Going forward, we believe the earnings prospects for tech companies will remain bleak, no  thanks to the flattish top line growth arising from sluggish electronics demand coupled with a higher labour cost structure that led by the new minimum wage ruling and adverse currency fluctuation. In conclusion, our top-down analysis points toward a negative outlook for the sector in 4Q12 and 1Q13.

Property Developers - Developers to remain range-bound in 1Q13

Property Developers -
Developers to remain range-bound in 1Q13

Maintain NEUTRAL on developers as we recommend that investors be selective and adopt a trading stance. It appears Johor will steal the limelight next year while Klang Valley will be a more challenging landscape given that market leaders are facing a 'high base' effect. Although developers' Fwd PBV valuations are trading close to trough levels, we are NOT OVERWEIGHTING the sector as we do not see any strong immediate term catalysts given GE uncertainties, which also means less preference  for high betas. We may review our sector call next year depending on the GE timing and catalytic news (e.g. awards of RRI land and TRX project).

Malaysian Airline System: Buying Turboprops Worth RM3bn (OSK)


Malaysian Airline System
Fair Value RM0.52
Price RM0.70
Buying Turboprops Worth RM3bn

 THE BUZZ
MAS announced yesterday that it has inked a MoU with ATR, a French-Italian aircraft manufacturer, to purchase 36 brand new ATR 72-600 aircraft worth a total of RM3bn. Of the 36 aircraft ordered, Firefly will take on 20 whilst the balance of 16 will be inducted into the fleet of its sister company MASwings.

OUR TAKE
A meaningful investment. The purchase of these aircraft will allow both Firefly and MASwings to expand their route networks, which we are positive on given the strong demand of the niche market where competition is fairly limited. Firefly intends to add frequencies to existing routes to Penang, Selangor and Kota Bahru, while new routes planned are to destinations in Thailand and Indonesia.

曾淵滄專欄 28.12.12:政府無把握壓樓價


曾淵滄專欄:政府無把握壓樓價 - 曾淵滄

政府推出買家印花稅(BSD)之後,地產發展商很不滿,向政府提出多項反建議,希望政府放寬本地人持有的公司及收購舊樓的公司可豁免BSD,現在政府決定只讓收購舊樓的公司將來可退稅,但詳情仍有待公佈,先交稅而後退稅,也會加重收購舊樓的成本,相信退稅詳情公佈前,收購舊樓的活動會暫停。

政府推出雙辣招後,本地地產股股價一度大跌,但現在股價基本上已重返雙辣招推出前水平,我之前提過,今年香港地產商賣樓成績很好,利潤已有保障,但2012年很快會過去,2013年香港地產商還能賣多少樓?少了大陸客源,能賣甚麼價錢?

美房价涨幅 创2年来最大

美房价涨幅 创2年来最大

(纽约27日讯)全美10月房价创两年来最大涨幅,显示房地產市场正在反弹,带动经济復甦。

標普∕凯斯席勒(CS)房价指数显示,10月全美20大城市房价较去年同月上涨4.3%,优於市场预期的上涨4%和9月的上涨3%,而且是2010年5月以来最可观的年比涨幅。

20大城市中有18个城市的房价较去年上升,以凤凰城上涨21.7%最突出,底特律以10%的涨幅紧追在后;芝加哥和纽约房价下跌。

若与前月相比,10月房价经季节调整后上涨0.7%,20大城市中有17个上涨。標普∕凯斯席勒表示,年比资料较能凸显房价走势。

亚欧 北美线 货运价调涨


亚欧 北美线 货运价调涨

(台北27日讯)货柜航商拉抬价格不手软,明年1月起,包括亚欧航线、北美航线,甚至冷冻柜等產品,全数陆续调涨。

下月15日,泛太平洋运价稳定协会(TSA)將调涨美国线运价,美西每大柜调涨600美元,美东800美元;业界人士说,美东29日的罢工如果成真且持续,包括码头作业拥挤费每大柜1000美元都会开徵, 塞港的船舶恐將吸收不少运力,航商可望顺势调升运价。

另外,欧洲线各航商陆续启动运价调升,调整幅度与日期不一,但从1月10日过后,预计各航商都会调涨运价。今年第1季,海运燃油每公吨成本超过700美元,运价则受供过於求大幅下杀,主力航商全数大亏。

半导体股无惊喜

半导体股无惊喜

(吉隆坡26日讯)半导体领域的2013年展望出现综合看法,再加上目前缺乏重新调整投资评级的催化剂,分析员维持该领域「中和」投资评级。

国际半导体设备材料產业协会(SEMI)公佈北美洲的半导体设备製造商,在2012年6月至11月订单出货值(Book-To-Bill)跌破平价门槛,这反映出业者的资本投资持续疲软。

11月的订单出货值稍微改善,主要是因为出货量减少至9亿1190万美元的3年新低水平。

此外,半导体工业协会(SIA)表示,9月和10月全球晶片销售分別按月增加2%和1.7%,至248亿美元和252亿美元。

捷运工程进展顺利 金务大力爭新合约


捷运工程进展顺利 金务大力爭新合约

(吉隆坡27日讯)鑑于双溪毛糯-加影路线的(SBK)捷运工程大致上跟得上进度,以及有望获得捷运其他路线的工程,促使分析员看好金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑股),并给予「买进」的投资评级。

捷运SBK路线工程进展顺利,并已展开所有7个地铁站的准备工作。

金务大已採购10架隧道掘进机(Tunnel Boring Machines),首两架將在2013年3月杪交付。

至於捷运的高架桥部份,管理层透露,所有的高架桥工程正按计划进行。

目前,捷运已颁发总值超越200亿令吉的54个配套。2013年首季杪则將颁发剩余的32个配套,总价值介於20亿-25亿令吉。

消费热潮带动 零售股大起


消费热潮带动 零售股大起
(吉隆坡27日讯)在农历新年来临之际和年杪季节性消费热潮的带动下,市场普遍对消费领域前景持正面看法,促使多只消费股于週四走高,纷纷挤入20大上升榜中。

当中走势最强劲的当数「罪恶」领域,英美烟草(BAT,4162,主板消费股)上涨72仙或1.21%,为全场最大上升股。 同时,健力士英格(GAB,3255,主板消费股)和日本烟草国际(JTINTER,2615,主板消费股)分別上升0.971%及1.37%,为全场第5和第15上升股。皇帽酿酒厂(CARLSBG,2836,主板消费股)则上扬0.32%。

啤酒领域前景乐观

肯南嘉研究分析员对啤酒领域前景表示乐观,特別是在政府没有上调消费税的情况下,麦芽酒类市场的销售量料將取得中单位数的成长;烟草领域则碍于未来加税的不確定性,致使分析员对其抱持谨慎乐观態度。

日圓挫27月低點添疑慮‧馬幣走疲‧升值動力減


日圓挫27月低點添疑慮‧馬幣走疲‧升值動力減
Created 12/27/2012 - 18:07

(吉隆坡27日訊)美國財政懸崖問題繼續打擊投資情緒,加上外界臆測新上任日相安倍晉三將推促中央銀行擴大挹注資金,日圓匯率維持在近27個月低點,兩大利空拖累馬幣滑落至11周低點。

不過,分析員預期,由於亞洲經濟成長深具動力,亞洲貨幣在2013年仍具成長空間,惟由於大馬貿易盈余不斷縮減,馬幣升值速度將減緩。

人民幣左右亞幣前景

同時,亞幣前景料將以人民幣匯率馬首是瞻。

YTL Power rises on privatisation news


YTL Power rises on privatisation news

2012/12/27

YTL Power International Bhd's counter rose almost five per cent, or seven sen, to RM1.58 as at mid-afternoon today following news on its possible privatisation exercise by parent company, YTL Corp Bhd.

As at 3.38 pm, a total of 12.559 million shares changed hands.

Meanwhile, YTL Corp gained 1.081 per cent, or two sen, to RM1.87 with 3.112 million shares traded.

It was reported that the recent move by YTL Power International in reducing dividend payout to match its parent company's may signal the possibility of it being taken private by YTL Corp via share swap.

美國大城市房價持續復甦

(美國‧紐約27日訊)標準普爾公司26日發佈月度報告說,10月份美國大城市房價與去年同期相比繼續上漲,房屋市場顯示出穩定持續的復甦勢頭。

報告顯示,儘管被調查的20個大城市房價與前一個月相比稍有下滑,但與去年同期相比仍然上漲了4.3%,漲幅高於預期。另外,在排除了季節性因素之後,10月份的房價環比也仍然上漲0.7%。

標普指數委員會主席戴維‧布裡澤在報告中表示,與月度的變化數據相比,房價年率的變化對於衡量房地產市場的總體情況而言更具參考性,因為秋冬季是房市的淡季,總體價格要比春秋兩季低。

馬航還能高飛嗎?(三)‧國家航空公司‧命運大不同


馬航還能高飛嗎?(三)‧國家航空公司‧命運大不同
Created 12/26/2012 - 18:29
馬航在亞航強攻之下,已失去大半江山,明年在Malindo加入戰圍後,馬航企業公民上上下下、裡裡外外,究竟如何擬定方略,殺出重圍?

新航的成功:問責和全力施為

“一國政府對國家航空公司極盡津貼和扶持,或視為捧在手心的`寶’,將導致國家航空公司最終以失敗收場。"

安倍令日央行設定通膨上限2%來挽救日本長年通縮的問題?

2012-1224-57金錢爆(TOKYO重裝戒備)4-2

Will Abe Back Off From the BOJ?


Reasons To Be Overweight Japan


Dim Outlook for Chinese Banks Next Year


Shanghai Comp To Rebound In 2013: Pro