Thursday, June 14, 2012

CapitaRetail China Trust: Are footfalls declining?

China retails sales slows in May

[6/13/12] – OCBC Research says data released on Saturday shows that China's retail sales grew 13.8% YoY in May to RMB1.7 trln, marginally lower from the 14.1% growth in April and lower than economists' expectation of a 14.2% rise but still acceptable.

Adjusted for inflation, May's figure was up 11% YoY.

For the first five months of FY2012, retail sales totaled RMB8.2 trln, up 14.5% YoY.

China's rate cut last Thursday had already caused many to anticipate disappointing economic data over the weekend.

Inflation slowed to 3% in May from 3.4% in April, which should give the central bank more leeway to enact further interest rate cuts.

The broker believes that domestic demand could be boosted starting in Q3 FY12.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, China recorded 194 mln online shoppers and RMB782.6 bln in online retail trade last year.

The sales were 53.7% higher YoY and accounted for 4.3% of China's total consumer goods retail volume in 2011.

The importance of the online channel is increasingly recognized by retailers.

In Feb, Walmart increased its stake in Yihaodian, the biggest online grocery retailer in China, to 51%.

Department store retailer Neiman Marcus invested in the Glamour Sales site in March.

In May, Macy’s invested in online retailer VIPStore, which operates jiapin.com.

Even if online retail sales continue to grow at 50% p.a. through till 2015 and total retail sales grow at a conservative 10% to 15% per annum, physical retail sales can grow at a healthy 7% to 12% p.a.

Among real estate investments, retail is quite heterogeneous, whereby differentiation and strong execution are key.

OCBC has confidence in CRCT's operational capability given its manager is a wholly-owned subsidiary of CapitaMalls Asia.

Hence, it has maintained BUY rating with target price of S$1.44 and says the stock is trading at an attractive FY12 dividend yield of 7.4%.

Investor Central. We ask the questions that need to be asked:
1. With China’s retails sales dropping and disappointing economic data, are footfalls declining?
2. How does CapitaRetail plan to compete with the increasing online stores?


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: InvestorCentral
Publish date: 13/06/12

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock