Thursday, June 14, 2012

Jim Rogers: Let Spain, Greece Go Bankrupt

Jim Rogers' advice amid all the global economic turmoil: Short stocks, consider commodities and to heck with European bailouts.

A day after the billionaire investor told CNBC that the Spanish bailout was "absurd," he amplified on his point that letting any country go bankrupt wouldn't be the worst thing.

"New York City went bankrupt, the world didn’t come to an end. Mississippi went bankrupt once, the world hasn’t come to an end. Detroit’s bankrupt, the world hasn’t ended," Rogers said Tuesday on CNBC's "Closing Bell."





So if banks in ailing Spain and Greece go bankrupt, bondholders and bankers will lose money, he shrugged.

"What happens is you reorganize and you start over. It’s been happening for a few thousand years. There’s nothing new about it."

Had the U.S. not let Lehman Brothers fail at the start of the 2008 recession, "we would still be suffering," he said. "They would still be bailing out everyone in sight."

His strategy in the event of a global selloff: Sell short.

"I’m not advocating because I’m short, but I’m short because I think there are going to be more problems in the world economy in the next year or two. That’s how you protect yourself in times like this," he said. "What they’re doing is they’re making this situation worse."

Why?

Because bailouts and printing money only add to the debt burden, Rogers said.

"What I see happening is more and more bailouts, higher and higher and higher debt," he said. "We’re going to have a worse recession next year and 2014 because the debt is high. ... In 2007 and 2008, the recession was worse because the debt was higher; 2013 and 2014, the debt is up to the ceiling. The recession is going to be worse. This is not going to be fun."

Rogers sees oil [CLCV1 83.17 -0.15 (-0.18%) ] as a good investment over the long haul.

"The price of oil may well go down for a while. China is slowing down, India is slowing down, a lot of places are slowing down," he said. But "over a decade the price of oil is going to go through the roof. The surprise is going to be how high the price of oil stays and how high it goes. That doesn’t mean it cannot go to $70 in the meantime. But if it does, you should buy a lot of oil."

And gold [XAU= 1609.09 -0.41 (-0.03%) ]. "If it goes down, I’ll buy more," he said.

But would he buy stocks?

"Not that I can think of," he said. "If stocks collapsed around the world I would have to buy a lot more stocks. I would buy stocks again, but I don’t see that happening. I’m telling you, the economy is going to be bad next year. Why buy stocks in the face of something like that?"



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CNBC
Publish date:12/06/12

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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