Thursday, June 14, 2012

STX OSV: Market rumours – Caveat lector (OCBC)

STX OSV’s share prices slumped recently on rumours that (i) STX Corp will not seek a management premium on its stake sale, and (ii) when no MOU was announced for the supposed Fincantieri deal. Taking a closer look on the market rumours surrounding STX OSV, we argue that the some rumours could possibly be made to influence a particular outcome. In the event that no deal materializes, STX OSV remains a strong company with a good track record. With a PER of 6.5x and estimated dividend yield of at least 5%, we keep our BUY rating (FV unchanged at S$2.00) on the STX OSV.

Deal or no deal?
According to media reports, STX Corp has decided to sell its entire 50.75% stake in STX OSV to Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri and private equity firm Carlyle Group, and will sign a preliminary agreement with the buyers by the end of May 2012. The selling price was believed to be S$1.60 per share; this has resulted in the recent slump in STX OSV’s share price. However, nothing was announced to date, raising questions if the deal is already dead or still under negotiations.

Market rumours or mind games?
Faced with the plethora of market rumours surrounding STX OSV, we urge caution. M&A activities are highly confidential and it is unusual to have so many leaks. Therefore, the possibility that some rumours are made to influence a particular outcome cannot be ruled out. Parties in a deal (in general, not referring to STX OSV per se) may have conflicting interests and may seek ways to increase their bargaining positions, or weaken the opposing party’s positions. To illustrate, a seller would want buyers to believe that they are not desperate to sell so as to obtain a better pricing (and vice versa for buyers). Business rivals could also be interested in blocking a particular transaction for competitive reasons.

Maintain BUY; FV: S$2.00
STX OSV’s share prices slumped recently on rumours that (i) STX Corp will not seek a management premium, and (ii) when no MOU was announced for the supposed Fincantieri deal. We think the market has overreacted. Even if there is no deal, STX OSV remains a strong company with a good track record. With a PER of 6.5x and estimated dividend yield of at least 5%, we keep our BUY rating (FV unchanged at S$2.00) on the STX OSV.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date: 13/06/12

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
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每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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