Saturday, May 19, 2012

浅析李驰的价值投资哲学

浅析李驰的价值投资哲学
http://www.sina.com.cn 2010年12月17日 16:57 私募排排网
  私募排排网高级研究员 龙舫

  直到今天,价值投资思想在中国私募圈里,仍然有着众多的追随者。但是这个圈子里,有着太多的浮躁,有着很多的变异。以笔者的观察来看,真正能够坚持价值投资,说到做到的人并不多。

  李驰就是那个坚持价值投资思想的人,而且是一个很少变化的人,他买入的股票都是对外公开的,而且言行合一。“少即多,慢即快,越不繁,越不凡。”这句白话是他的投资哲学概括,其中充满了投资智慧。

與時拼經.管理策略得當 百年企業愈戰愈勇

少部分的人可以活超過100年,但根基穩固的企業,只要管理和策略得當,要永續經營至百年以上不是問題。
海外百年企業其實多不勝數,大家較為熟悉的包括李錦記、可口可樂、諾基亞、雀巢、同仁堂、通用汽車、通用電氣、雪佛蘭(Chevrolet)、國際商業機器(IBM)和寶潔(P&G)等。

這些能夠歷經百年而不衰的企業,在現代市場中競爭亦絲毫不輸年輕企業。

2012年,國內外企業陸續加入百年企業行列,包括美國兩家歷史最悠久的電影公司,亦在今年慶祝百年紀念。

此外,國人毫不陌生的雀巢和英美煙草,也在今年慶祝入駐大馬百年紀念。

积极收购资产扩大租金收入 双威REIT备受欢迎

积极收购资产扩大租金收入 双威REIT备受欢迎
二零一二年五月十九日 晚上八时三十七分

(吉隆坡19日讯)在考虑到其资产规模和基金单位流通量相当大后,双威实业投资信托(SUNREIT,5176,实业投资信托)在房地产投资信托领域中,是本地投资者一个较为明显的选择。以管理旗下资产值计算,它是目前最大的房地产投资信托基金。而以市值计算,在2012年3月杪总共超过45亿令吉,紧接着是柏威年实业投资信托(PAVREIT,5212,实业投资信托)。

自2010年7月首次公开售股至今,该基金表现一直良好。现时,其单位价格从88仙的散户发售价升值至目前的1.23令吉,而在该期间内所分配的收益总额达到12.2仙。这意味着在不到两年的时间内取得将近56%的收益率。在考虑到其相对的防御性因素后,这是一个非常可观的回报。

外围牵制 马股跌势未喘定

欧元区捲起的风暴加深市场担忧,市场无法鑑定马股是否已在本周见底,普遍认为来周股市倾向下跌或调整格局。但仍有小部分市场人士表示,已陷入超卖的马股,或有可能出现短期反弹。

大马富时综合指数按周挫跌51.86点,或3.27%,以1532.46点结束交易。一周成交量挫跌4.4%,至57亿6832万股,成交值却上扬28.08%,至82亿6207万令吉。

经歷一周的大起大落后,肯南嘉投行研究主管陈建尧相信,来週的马股走势料將由上市公司的季度业绩所主导。他认为富时综指下週將进入调整期,扶持水平料將介於1520点至1530点的水平。

然而,他补充,目前尚未確定这一轮的新低水平是否会是暂时性的。

或流失重大合约 科恩马潜藏风险

(吉隆坡19日讯)儘管八方旺组合(OCTAGON,7109,主板工业股)成功申请清盘限制令,但分析员仍担心该公司或失去斯里兰卡废料转化为能源的工程,进而拖累有份参与这项发展计划的科恩马集团(KNM,7164,主板工业股)。

科恩马的主要客户之一八方旺组合宣佈获得高等法庭颁发的清盘限制令,有效期限为3个月。八方旺组合能够在这3个月內如常运作,以及与金融机构擬定重组计划。

达证券分析员指出,科恩马在2011年10月获得Orizion再生能源私人有限公司颁发两项工程,总值6.84亿令吉。而Orizion是八方旺组合的独资子公司。这2项工程分別是斯里兰卡的废料转化为能源工厂的工程、採购、承建与委託工程(EPCC),以及为这座工厂製造和安装先进热气化反应器(ATGR)。科恩马目前还未展开上述工程,因为这些工程必须先获得融资才能动工。

施永青: 希腊会脱离欧盟吗?

希腊会脱离欧盟吗?

2012-05-14
希腊大选后,欧洲的赌博公司已不再接受希腊脱离欧盟的落注。即是说这个盘太一面倒,庄家自己也不肯博,所以不知以甚么比例来开盘。亦即是说大部分人都认为希腊脱离欧盟已无可避免。

欧盟协助希腊解决债务危机的条件,是要希腊行紧缩政策。希腊得为此裁减三万名公务员,并削减国企员工的工资4%,此外还得删减各项国民福利及延后退休年龄。可惜这些政策未见其利先见其害,希腊的GDP因而倒退了7.5%,失业率升至21.8%,罪案与自杀率亦因而上升,人民对此非常不满。

德國股神投資格言

名家观点:希腊须退出欧元区•鲁比尼

名家观点:希腊须退出欧元区•鲁比尼
Created 05/19/2012 - 13:00

希腊欧元悲剧正在上演最后一出:显然,今年或明年,希腊很有可能对其债务违约并退出欧元区。

即使6月选举后上台的新政府让退出暂时中止,老方一帖的无用政策(必须的紧缩和结构性改革)也不能重塑增长和竞争力。

希腊已经陷入了无力偿债、丢失竞争力、外部赤字和萧条越滑越深的恶性循环。

唯一的解脱办法就是在欧洲央行、欧盟和IMF的融资和协助下有序违约和退出,以最小化对希腊和欧元区其他国家的附带伤害。

目前,由三驾马车监视的希腊再融资计划所给予的债务纾困远小于希腊之所需。

Ascendas India Trust: 4Q FY 2011/2012 Financial Results Presentation







李嘉诚持股增值7倍 陈志远身家涨4亿

李嘉诚持股增值7倍 陈志远身家涨4亿
Created 05/18/2012 - 19:40

(吉隆坡18日讯)随着美国面子书(Facebook)今日晚间将在那斯达克(Nasdaq)交易所上市,以高达1040亿美元(约3234亿令吉)市值之势登场,多名亚洲投资者包括全球华人首富李嘉诚及大马富豪丹斯里陈志远,将分别有逾20亿令吉及数亿令吉入袋。

据报道,李嘉诚是以1亿2000万美元(约3亿7000万令吉)持有面子书的0.8%股权,按面子书最终发售价每股38美元(约118令吉)顶价估算,上市后李嘉诚的持股约8亿美元(24亿9000万令吉),相等于当年投资额的7倍。

掌控MOL环球88%股权

石油油轮 再气化工程盈利推动 马国际船务获短线买入

石油油轮 再气化工程盈利推动 马国际船务获短线买入
Created 05/19/2012 - 11:57

(吉隆坡18日讯)尽管马国际船务(MISC,3816,主板贸服股)2012财年首季业绩低于券商预期,但部分券商认为,最坏的时刻已经过去,加上石油油轮和再气化工程的盈利推动,因此,券商建议“短线买入”该股。

拉昔胡申研究分析员指出,基于马国际船务2012财年首季营运亏损(3亿840万令吉)高于全年预测的2亿令吉,致使该公司现财年首季的业绩表现不如预期。

“不过,由于石油与化工运费在去年第三季已跌至谷底,而集装箱运输业务的首季营运亏损已扩大到顶点,加上马六甲再气化工程预计将在9月贡献盈利,以及来自石油油轮业务的盈利贡献,我们认为,马国际船务日后将否极泰来。”

原油价格走低 东尼暗示机票价调降

原油价格走低 东尼暗示机票价调降
Created 05/19/2012 - 11:56

(吉隆坡18日讯)亚洲航空(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)总执行长丹斯里东尼费南德斯暗示,机票价钱或将随原油价格走低而调降。

东尼今日在“推特”上表示:“油价下滑,对亚航的营收能力来说是好消息。从我们这边来说,市场需求非常非常好,也意味着更低的票价。”

国际原油价格在今日下滑至每桶107美元(335.66令吉),写下今年最低点,主要是欧洲国家不明确性攀升使投资者感到忧虑。

另一方面,随着与马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)撤销换股协议,亚航今日也宣布终止与马航的凭单交换建议。

龍馬探民丹島度假村投資機會

龍馬探民丹島度假村投資機會
Created 05/19/2012 - 15:33

(吉隆坡19日訊)龍馬(LANDMRK,1643,主板旅店組)簽署兩項備忘錄,探索在民丹島綜合度假村的投資機會。

該公司與Decennia亞洲公司的合作將是多重主題的酒店發展計劃,佔地7千340平方公尺,而與SkywaveAir公司的合作則是涉及水上飛機營運。

Gabriel Gan:Political Uncertainties Drag Stock Markets Lower: What Else To Look Forward To?

11 MAY 2012
Political Uncertainties Drag Stock Markets Lower: What Else To Look Forward To?
By Gabriel Gan

After trading sideways for more than two months, the Straits Times Index (STI) finally made a “breakthrough” when it tore away from the 2,950-3,031 range by breaking the supports at 2,980 and 2,910. Interestingly, the 2,910 support was formed using the low on 7 March 2012 and the high on 28 October 2011 but this level was easily taken out on 9 and 10 May, which suggests that the STI my test the 2,850-2,875 support zone. There is also a gap formed between 20 and 21 January 2012, meaning there is a chance that the gap could be filled before the STI attempts a rebound.

Exports and GDP: Heading for a much softer 2Q (CS)

Singapore Economics
Exports and GDP: Heading for a much softer 2Q

● Singapore non-oil domestic export growth surprised on the upside in April. Before getting carried away, however, a couple of important points are worth making. First, the 13% seasonally adjusted month-on-month rise followed a near 17% decline in the previous month. Second, the numbers look to have been distorted by a bizarrely strong increase in exports to Japan.

● The latter in turn was the result of a 900% rise in pharmaceutical exports to the country! Stripping out exports to Japan, Singapore NODX rose 1.1% compared with the overall 8.3% gain.

Prof Chan Yan Chong Commentary 11.05.2012

11 MAY 2012
Prof Chan Yan Chong
By Prof Chan Yan Chong

The French Presidential election saw socialist candidate Francois Hollande defeat Nicolas Sarkozy to become the first socialist President in 17 years. At the same time, Sarkozy became the first incumbent to not retain office in 30 years, which resulted in Asian markets falling when it opened after the weekend.

Hollande is a socialist that advocates welfarism that includes bringing forward the retirement age to 60 years old, taxing the rich, imposing taxes on financial transactions as well as anti-austerity measures. He also wants the European Central Bank (ECB) to play a bigger role in boosting the European economy while arguing that the terms of the deficit-cutting measures signed with the European Union be renegotiated.

胡立阳自解只当老师不炒股之谜


HSI’s PE Close To 2008 Level

HSI’s PE Close To 2008 Level

HSI declined in 10 out of the past 11 trading days, while S&P500 dropped for 9 trading days and DAX was slightly better, falling for 7 days. Based on yesterday’s closing price, HSI’s prospective PE falls to 9.8x, which is close the 2008 level of 8.7x. As for historical P/B, it is now 1.32x, close to 1.16x in 2008. If we assume the earnings forecast remains unchanged, HSI’s PE will fall to the 2008 level if the index just loses 2,000 points.

巴菲特和芒格答股東:只在股價特別便宜時才出手

巴菲特和芒格答股東:只在股價特別便宜時才出手
2012年05月14日 16:57 來源:新華網 周宏
[推薦朋友][列印本稿][字號 大 中 小]
  根據會議記錄,在過去5年的股東大會中,2012年可能是巴菲特觸及投資本質最多的一次會議。在這次會議中,巴菲特詳細解讀了他對投資的基本看法,他對宏觀經濟和市場的盈利預期的最新判斷,如何捕捉投資機會,如何判斷企業、如何處理危機和機會成本,如何考核基金經理業績以及如何培養投資能力。

  儘管許多回應在現場的投資者中,只是激起了些許笑聲,但是,其中對投資理念和思想的深刻表述完全不容忽視,本刊特此輯錄下來,以供讀者參閱。

“打破砂锅问到底” 成就台塑王国

已故台湾首富、台塑集团创办人王永庆如何妥善管理庞大的企业?

台大国际企业系教授兼台湾大学副校长汤明哲认为,王永庆的管理哲学是点点滴滴地追根究底,不断询问“为什么”;采取数字管理,追求合理化的降低成本,也因此让台塑拥有和国外企业管理不同的制度。

图:很多企业老板的心中都有一台电脑,王永庆也一样,重视数字的管理。

HSBC : Investor day update—reaffirming the targets set last year (CS)

HSBC Holdings
Price (17 May 12, HK$) 65.80
TP (prev. TP HK$) 78.86 (78.86)
Est. pot. % chg. to TP 20
52-wk range (HK$) 82.0 - 56.1
Maintain NEUTRAL
Investor day update—reaffirming the targets set last year

● HSBC held an investor day today to provide an update on the strategy. They have reaffirmed targets set last year and increased their revenue expectations from cross sell by US$1 bn in the short to medium term.

● HSBC reaffirmed the 48-52% cost income ratio target and expects to achieve the top end of US$2.5-3.5 bn savings target. The cost income ratio target seems difficult to achieve, and we expect 56% and 54% cost income ratio for 2013E/14E, respectively.

DBS Bank - Market Perspectives: Another Greek tragedy, another round of risk aversion?


SMRT Corporation: Holding firm despite new developments (OCBC)

Following a directive issued by LTA, SMRT will begin replacing, with immediate effect, the power supplying third rail at locations where hairline cracks on some parts of the third rail joints are more visible. The cost for this replacements have not been accounted for by management’s estimates this year, and we expect to see a slight uptick in this year’s capital expenditure with the increase coming from an acceleration of costs from later years. Despite the latest development and ongoing COI hearings, SMRT’s share price has managed to hold steady and even outperformed against a backdrop of broad-market declines. At this juncture, we deem the possibility of further sharp sell-offs to be remote as SMRT services and its operational cash flows remain in demand and resilient. Maintain HOLD with a fair value estimate of S$1.71.

MISC: A Compelling LNG Play(OSK)

MISC
Fair Value RM6.45
Price RM3.94
A Compelling LNG Play

新加坡第一季的GDP增长高于预测;仍需关注欧洲局势

新加坡第一季的GDP增长高于预测;仍需关注欧洲局势
文: 道琼斯通讯社 2012年05月17日 道琼斯通讯社
新加坡第一季的经济增长略微高于先前的预测,但政府维持其全年增长预测,因为全球经济的复苏情况依然脆弱,容易受到下跌风险的影响。

贸工部在5月17日(星期四)表示,第一季的经济与上个季度相比增长了10%,高于它在上个月预测的9.9%。

文告显示,新加坡经济年比增长1.6%,与早前的预测相同。贸工部仍预期2012年的全年经济增长将在1%至3%之间,与早前的预测一样。

Facebook 今天晚上首次公开售股:你有兴趣吗?

Facebook 今天晚上首次公开售股:你有兴趣吗?
文: 李廷伟 (译:麦美莹) 2012年05月18日 焦点
今天晚上是属于你可能每天都上的网站的大日子。噢, 不好意思,我不是说谷歌(Google)。你会喜欢它,因为你的朋友会在那里跟你打招呼,你也可以把朋友的名字标贴在照片上。如果这个世界现在没有了Facebook,你可以想象会变成怎样吗?

早在公司定出的上市日期前,投资者及旁观者已经对它产生浓厚的兴趣,很多人都希望可以希望能分得一杯羹。

我可以在此大谈Facebook的历史,它是怎样从其创办人马克扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)的哈佛宿舍里诞生及发展到今时今日的受欢迎程度,但我觉得这些其实不大重要。或许你可以想想你是怎样开始用Facebook,与其他社交网站(像Friendster,不大熟悉吧!) 相比,你是不是迷上了它。

MAS unions: ‘Hear us out’

The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 19, 2012
MAS unions: ‘Hear us out’

By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

THE biggest fear the eight employees unions and associations at Malaysia Airlines (MAS) have after rushing for two days to prepare a 48-page document outlining a plausible way they think could reverse the fortunes of the airline is that their effort will count for naught.

Their dismay is that the entire process would be just a display that the top management is willing to engage with the unions after the sensational unwinding of a share swap agreement between MAS and AirAsia.

亚洲股市大刮跌风 海指跌破2800点

亚洲股市昨日又再全面大幅下跌,怎一个“惨”字了得。遭抛售风吹袭的海峡时报指数下挫1.54%。

  希腊政坛持续动荡,经济每况愈下,退与不退出欧元区其实结果都相去不远,拖累其他成员国已成定局,只是这负面影响力到底有多大,是投资者最为焦虑的问题。

  而国际评级机构最新的下调行动进一步加重投资者的悲观情绪。惠誉宣布,将希腊长期本外币债券评级从B-级下调至CCC级,短期外币债券的评级从B级下调至C级。

IPC企业 日本神奈川县建公寓

IPC企业(IPC Corp)已经达成买卖协议,在神奈川县(Kanagawa)的大矶町购买一块地皮,发展75个单位的公寓项目。

  这是公司在日本的第六个公寓项目,它楼高三层,预计将在2013年第三季完成建造。

  公司已经同一家日本房地产公司达成买卖协议,预先将整个项目销售给后者。

  IPC企业将在项目竣工以及将所有单位移交给这家日本公司后获得付款。

虎航全年净亏1亿余元

正如预测,因去年被令全面停飞六周以及过后只能部分恢复航班趟次,虎航集团业绩严重受到打击,不仅净亏1亿零400万元(前年取得3990万元净利),营收也微降至6亿1820万元(前年为6亿2230万元),因附加服务销售收入下跌。

王阳发 报道
ongyh@sph.com.sg

  虎航集团(Tiger Airways Holdings)上财年净亏1亿零400万元,每股亏损14.94分。集团总裁陈有成预期旗下虎航澳洲今年9月全面恢复到去年7月被令停飞前的航班趟次时,集团将有更好的机会转亏为盈,但航油价格居高不下继续是集团必须面对的主要挑战。

  陈有成是在去年7月虎航澳洲(Tiger Airways Australia)被令全面停飞后,由母公司新航(SIA)调入主掌虎航集团至今。

新能源澳洲网络将售新股给散户

能源基建集团新能源澳洲网络(SP AusNet)已成功向机构投资者股东筹资3亿4200万澳元(4亿3400万新元),下周二它将开始以同样价格(每股1澳元或1.25新元)发售新股给散户投资者,筹集另外9200万澳元(1亿1660万新元)资金。
  该公司昨日宣布完成这项筹资行动,并获得机构投资者有力的支持,认购了配得的约96%的新股。此外,售股活动也吸引不少现有和新的机构投资者,在配售的新股获得全面认购后,积极购买了不少额外的新股。

  该公司在周三宣布,以3对20配股募资,每股价格为1澳元(1.25新元),筹集总共4亿3400万澳元(5亿4720万新元)资金。新股的售价,比起新能源澳洲网络周二在新加坡股市的闭市报——1.395新元折价10.4%。

Frasers Commercial Trust: On track to unlocking more value (DBSV)

Frasers Commercial Trust
BUY S$0.925
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.24
On track to unlocking more value

Enhancing China Square Precinct.
Frasers Commercial Trust ("FCOT") together with Far East Organization ("FEO") and The Great Eastern Life Assurance announced that they will be undertaking asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) to revitalise the China Square Precinct. The AEI works under the China Square Precinct Master Plan is expected to improve connectivity and integrate the companies’ respective developments, namely China Square Central (“CSC”), Far East Square and Great Eastern Centre, into a precinct known as “China Place.” One of the key features of the China Square Precinct Master Plan is the construction of a covered link way between the three properties and future Telok Ayer MRT station. The link way will cost an estimated S$14m which will be shared equally among the three partners. This project will commence in June 2012, and targeted for completion by February 2013.

TIGER AIRWAYS REPORTS LOSS AFTER TAX OF $104 MILLION FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 31 MARCH 2012



TIGER AIRWAYS REPORTS LOSS AFTER TAX OF $104 MILLION FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 31 MARCH 2012
• Group loss after tax of $104.3 million for the financial year ended 31 March 2012, versus a profit after tax of $39.9 million for the previous year
• The six-week suspension of Tiger Airways Australia and subsequent under-utilisation of the Group’s aircraft fleet significantly impacted on financial performance
• Substantial increase in fuel prices also impacted on the financial result
• The business is focused on returning to profitability

Noble Group: MANAGEMENT REPLY: Noble releases information to the public via the SGX and not through the media

Company replies to Investor Central's "questions that need to be asked"

[17/5/2012] – In reply to our questions, Noble Group says, "We made it completely clear in November that the factors contributing to our first ever quarterly loss were purely transitory."

On Mr Leiman's resignation, the group says he resigned for personal reasons which were entirely unrelated to its quarterly loss.

The company was responding to our questions in our earlier report titled " How will the new CEO perform today?" (May 10).

Wilmar International :MANAGEMENT REPLY: We cannot get purchases right every time

Company replies to Investor Central's "questions that need to be asked"

[17/5/2012] – Wilmar International says in the last 12 years, it has got the timing of its purchases right more often than wrong.

But given the volatility in the soybeans market, it cannot get its purchases right every time.

The company was responding to our questions in our earlier report titled "What is behind the ‘poor timing of beans purchases’?" (May 14), in which we reported on the US$52.5 mln pre-tax loss it reported in the oils business in Q1.

Fajarbaru Builder: received a contract letter of acceptance worth RM13.7m

Fajarbaru Builder
Price Target : 1.27
Last Price : 0.89


News
Fajarbaru announced that it had received a contract letter of acceptance worth RM13.7m from Malaysia Airport Holdings (MAHB) to supply Visual Docking Guidance System (VDGS) to MAHB for KLIA2, which includes the works of installation, testing, and commissioning of the system.

Comments
The contract will be completed in 11 months time and a big chunk of the contract value will be recognised in FY13 earnings.

IGB Corporation - Good performance all round

IGB Corporation
Price Target : 3.50
Last Price : 2.71

IGB Corporation's (IGB) 1QFY12 net profit of RM57.4mil was in-line with our and streets' estimates, covering about 28% of full-year numbers. As expected, no interim dividend was declared.

- Core earnings showed a strong recovery QoQ, following a one-off provision of RM40mil for MidValley City's infrastructure cost in the preceding quarter and more meaningful progress billings from ongoing developments, i.e. Seri Ampang Hilir (GDV:RM90mil) and Manor Park in Sungai Buloh. Group's earnings may be stronger in 2HFY12 in view of the potentially stronger billings in the coming quarters.

Here we go again - another round of risk aversion

Here we go again - another round of risk aversion
by Lim Say Boon 04:45 AM May 19, 2012
The ongoing correction in risky asset markets is likely to continue over the coming months. Losses are likely in equities, commodities and growth-sensitive or risk-related currencies.

The dynamics driving this renewed round of risk aversion are familiar - euro zone debt problems and sluggish global growth. There will be more of such sideways volatility as the global economy and financial markets continue to grapple with the unfinished business of the global financial crisis.

Asian markets slump on European woes

Asian markets slump on European woes
04:45 AM May 19, 2012
LONDON - Asian markets fell heavily yesterday as a deepening Spanish banking crisis, uncertainty about Greece's future in the euro zone and lacklustre United States data prompted a flight from risky assets.

Singapore's Straits Times Index shed 1.5 per cent to end at a four-month low of 2,779.10. It has lost about 8.2 per cent since it hit the year's high on March 14, wiping out about S$40 billion in the market value of the 30 companies that make up the index.

Tiger Air posts Q4 net loss

Tiger Air posts Q4 net loss
04:45 AM May 19, 2012
SINGAPORE - Budget carrier Tiger Airways took another nosedive in its fiscal fourth quarter, chalking up a net loss of S$16.4 million compared with a net profit of S$1.4 million a year earlier as a result of high fuel costs and a costly grounding in Australia last year.

Revenue for the three months ended March fell 1.3 per cent to S$161.1 million from S$163.2 million, but fuel costs came in at S$74.1 million compared with S$67.6 million, the Singapore-listed carrier said after trading hours.

Prime cities turn negative, safe havens to thrive

Prime cities turn negative, safe havens to thrive
by Kate Everett-Allen 04:45 AM May 18, 2012
The value of prime property in the world's key cities fell by 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of this year, representing the index's first quarterly fall since the depths of the global recession.

Although a milestone, the index's negative quarterly growth is not surprising. Quarterly price growth has been below 2 per cent since the first quarter of 2010 and it averaged only 0.6 per cent last year.

Facebook makes history, debuts in volatile trade

Facebook makes history, debuts in volatile trade
by AGENCIES 04:46 AM May 19, 2012
NEW YORK - The world's most keenly anticipated share sale kicked off yesterday, with Facebook shares opening at US$42.05 in very heavy trading, up 10.7 per cent from its US$38 initial public offering price, before giving up nearly all of those gains in less than half an hour.

Facebook's IPO, the biggest ever for an Internet company, was not merely a market event but a pop culture spectacle, with no other stock debut matching the frenzy created by the social networking site founded by Mr Mark Zuckerberg.

Spore-investors-leaving-for-safe-haven-assets-as-Europe-problems-deepen

Clear-skies-for-Asian-lowcost-carriers

Marc Faber: Correction Could Be Something More Serious


JPMorgan Continues Freefall


Greeks Withdrawing Cash from Banks as Financial Fears Grow


Spanish Bank Downgrades and ECB 'Chicken' Games with Sovereign Euro Nations


2012-0511-57金錢爆(JP摩根倫敦鯨曝光)



Friday, May 18, 2012

Asian stocks sink on Europe and US worries

Asian stocks sink on Europe and US worries
Posted: 18 May 2012

HONG KONG - Asian markets slumped and the euro fell further on Friday as the eurozone debt crisis was stoked by a ratings downgrade for Greece and 16 Spanish banks, while weak US data added to the pessimism.

Tokyo tumbled 2.99 percent, or 265.28 points, to 8,611.31, while Seoul plummeted 3.40 percent, or 62.78 points, to 1,782.46 and Sydney dived 2.67 percent, or 110.9 points, to 4,046.5, its biggest fall in eight months.

Home prices fall in 60% of big Chinese cities

Home prices fall in 60% of big Chinese cities
Posted: 18 May 2012
SHANGHAI: Prices for new homes in China fell in more than 60 percent of major cities in April from March, the government said Friday, as moves to curb the property market took effect.

Out of 70 major cities tracked by the government, 43 registered month-on-month falls in house prices last month, although that number was less than the 46 cities recorded in March.

Prices were unchanged in 24 cities in April while only three cities saw price rises, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

欧洲风云急 亚股又重挫 马股最坏或跌至1400点

(吉隆坡18日讯)亚股重挫!因欧债危机持续恶化,西班牙银行和希腊评级被下调,两国银行出现挤兑,导致亚洲股市哀鸿遍野。市场人士认为,区域市场短期內难以恢復稳定,马股在最坏情况下或大跌至1400点。

亚洲股市全线崩盘,尤以首尔综合指数和东京日经指数的跌势最重,达3.40%和2.99%。紧接著台湾加权指数、马尼拉综合指数和悉尼普通指数也都大跌超过2%,分別重挫2.79%、2.74%和2.61%。其余上海、香港、新加坡、印尼、泰国和越南等主要股市也未能倖免,跌幅超过1%以上。

富时吉隆坡综指週五跌幅最轻,最终仅下滑0.76%或11.75点,以1532.46点掛收。马股早盘以1539.24点开市,亦是全日最高水平,隨后就一直处于横摆格局,盘中一度跌至全日最低的1526.6点。马股的全日成交量达10亿6125万8800股。

欧美危机再延烧 亚股再崩盘 马股泻11点

欧美危机再延烧 亚股再崩盘 马股泻11点
Created 05/18/2012 - 19:52

(吉隆坡18日讯)欧美负面消息又再延烧,亚洲股市还来不及收复失地,周五又被乌云笼罩全线败退,崩盘惨剧再次上演。

欧美周四隔夜股市持续下跌,拖累本区域股市在周五再次暴跌,跌势介于1%至3%之间。本周以来,大部分主要区域股市的跌幅已扩大到3%至7%之间。

亚洲股市以韩国和日本股市跌势最严重,首尔综合指数和东京日经指数,在周五分别跌3.4%和2.99%,至1782.46点和8611.31点。

印尼:货币疲弱难避免

印尼:货币疲弱难避免
Created 05/18/2012 - 18:42

(雅加达18日讯)印尼银行总裁助理哈尔达迪指出,近日印尼货币对美元兑换率呈弱是难于避免的,因为世界各国的货币都呈现弱势。

他受访时说:“我们了解这是全球性情绪,特别是欧洲经济,不只是印尼盾呈现弱势以9300盾兑一美元,所有的其他货币也同时疲软,我们无能为力。”

哈尔达迪表示,央行将尽力而为,于适当时间并以适当的数额进行干预,防止盾币贬值太快。

What Are Their Shares Worth?


Facebook (FB)

38.00------
Trade TimeVolumeRangeMarket Cap
--:--:--0.00M0.00/0.00104.18B
Source:NASDAQ

What Are Their Shares Worth?
The Facebook IPO will make dozens of people rich –some of them phenomenally so. How big a payday will major Facebook shareholders see? We perused regulatory filings and media sources to determine the major shareholders and the number of shares they own. Check out the list of those shareholders and the amount of their Facebook windfall based on the real-time price of the shares.

Smaller REITs have higher yields

Smaller REITs have higher yields
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Insider Asia
Friday, 18 May 2012 14:26

In our article on Wednesday, we highlighted the better than fair chance that real estate investment trusts (REITs) will continue to attract the more risk averse investors, considering the prevailing cautious sentiment amid both domestic and external uncertainties.

While the yields offered by the larger and more liquid trusts have, on average, narrowed following gains in their unit prices, REITs with smaller asset portfolios, and often lower profiles, continue to offer more attractive yields. Most are trading closer to or less than their net asset values, in contrast to the premiums currently accorded their larger peers.

JPMorgan避險慘案背後的教訓:大型銀行碰不得

JPMorgan避險慘案背後的教訓:大型銀行碰不得
鉅亨網鄭杰 綜合報導  2012-05-15

JPMorgan (JPM-US) 避險失敗導致高達 20 億美元損失的消息傳出後,其股價應聲重挫 9%,同時也連累了其他各大型投資銀行的股價,包括高盛 (GS-US)、摩根士丹利 (MS-US)、花旗 (C-US) 股價都下跌,連帶在美國市場有大部位曝險的歐洲大型投資銀行,瑞信 (CS-US)、德意志銀行 (DB-US) 等也不能倖免。

《CNNMoney》主筆 Paul La Minica 指出,JPMorgan 避險失敗最可怕之處就在於,即便如此 JPMorgan 可能依然是華爾街中最好的大型銀行,這也正是為何投資人都應該對大型銀行們敬而遠之。

Focus on Fundamentals: Strategist



China's Market Reforms Positive for Stocks


China Property Stocks to Fall 10%: Analyst


“5月賣股離場”應驗‧綜指高峰回退4.6%‧分析員:投資宜抗跌‧迴避外資股

“5月賣股離場”應驗‧綜指高峰回退4.6%‧分析員:投資宜抗跌‧迴避外資股
Created 05/17/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡17日訊)“5月賣股離場”(Sell in May and Go Away)的股市流行語看來已有所應驗,馬股綜指自1609.33點的近期高峰回退了4.6%,在市場前景不明朗之際,分析員建議採取抗跌性的投資策略和迴避外資股權偏高的股項。

股市大跌後
部份股項浮現價值

一些分析員則認為,股市在近期大跌後,部份股項開始浮現價值。

希臘危機擴大引發市場恐慌,大馬股市綜指在昨日隨區域股市賣壓而重挫25點或1.6%,寫下自2011年10月18日以來最大跌幅,而成交值高達21億令吉,也遠超過往一個月的平均16億令吉成交量。整體股市基調保持疲軟。

馬航將振趐高飛?

馬航將振趐高飛?
Created 05/18/2012 - 12:01

馬航與亞航大股東促成的“婚事”在8個月後告吹,作為被家長“逼嫁”的馬航,未來是否在擺脫架鎖後再次衝刺高飛,備受市場關注,特別是在內憂外患下,前途可說是充滿諸多挑戰。

兩家公司大股東解除婚約後,這兩家本地航空公司,雖說“再見也是朋友”,仍然可以合作。不過,若是吃力不討好,要另一方拋身相助,可能也是一廂情願的事。所以,馬航還得靠自己努力解決難題,才是上策。

某些政客對這次航空業的股權交換及合作,前後評語著實令人摸不著頭腦;和好合作時表示是雙贏,過些時候分開後,又說是雙贏格局,果真是此一時彼一時。

亞股勁挫‧馬股一度下跌18點

亞股勁挫‧馬股一度下跌18點
Created 05/18/2012 - 17:47

(吉隆坡18日訊)希臘政治僵局持續高溫不退燒、西班牙銀行傳出擠兌及降級等負面消息,加上美國最新經濟數據令人失望,亞股今日開盤後勁挫,普遍挫跌1%至3.4%,陷入一片紅海,而馬股經過昨日的技術反彈後,今日也抵擋不足外圍的“狂風暴雨”,惟跌勢較輕,丟失0.76%。

由於歐元區引起的擔憂持續升高,投資者紛紛逃離股市,歐美週四股市收黑,道瓊工業指數挫1.24%,納斯達克指數跌2.10%,標準普爾500指數挫1.51%,創下4個月來的低點;歐洲三大指數週四也跌逾1%,而週五開盤同樣約滑落1%。

战股隆隆:天灾人祸影响股市

战股隆隆:天灾人祸影响股市●君厚
Created 05/18/2012 - 13:05

过去10年地球经历了不少的天灾人祸,这些不幸的事件影响了股市表现,让我粗略的对天灾和人祸作分析:

天灾:

天灾对股市的影响通常比较短,一旦灾害发生过后,股市就会恢复正常。

去年在日本发生的地震和泰国的水灾,给以这两国股市很大的冲击,可是不到数月,两地的股市就恢复灾难前的水平,泰股更是创出新高点。

天灾会给当地的经济带来重创,工业;旅游;正常生活等都会给以不便甚至停顿。

高油价冲击航空业 马航首季料亏3.3亿

高油价冲击航空业 马航首季料亏3.3亿
Created 05/18/2012 - 12:29

(吉隆坡17日讯)随着航空业的不景气,分析员预测,马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)即将在5月22日(周二)公布的2012财年首季业绩将非常难看,或出现高达3亿3200万令吉的净亏损。

马银行投银分析员表示,预测马航2012财年首季业绩将出现严重亏损,归咎于油价按年高涨20%的冲击,及受到全球经济严峻和市场竞争提高所致使的低赚幅经营环境。

他们估计,首季平均油价为每桶138美元(按年涨20%,按季增5.7%);以区域同行新航的表现作比较,估计马航赚幅按年下滑1.5%,每公里乘客营业额(RPK)为22.4仙。

坐拥现金1.8亿 派息3仙 JCY国际净利飙12倍

坐拥现金1.8亿 派息3仙 JCY国际净利飙12倍
Created 05/18/2012 - 11:32

(吉隆坡17日讯)现金高,加上资本开支比预期少,JCY国际(JYC,5161,主板科技股)宣布截至2012年3月31日财年次季,派发3仙股息。

JCY国际财务执行董事黄敬铿今日在记者会上表示,集团目前所持有的现金为1亿8020万令吉,加上次季业绩表现出色,决定派发3仙股息,相等于6000万令吉。

JCY国际次季净利报1亿6309万2000令吉,较上财年同期的1245万8000令吉增1209%。

Singapore Strategy: 1Q results wrap: Turning into the wind (DB)

Singapore Strategy
1Q results wrap: Turning into the wind
Climbing from the trough: earnings momentum & surprise factor turn positive
1Q earnings season marks an inflection point in earnings, with headline earnings surprising on the upside by 4.6% (4.0% on core) vs. a 4% shortfall in 4Q. Earnings momentum has accelerated with 38% reporting above expectations, 45% in line, and 18% below (vs. a 30:42:28 4Q11 split and 1/3 split in 3Q). We have raised our growth assumptions by 1% and now forecast 8% growth for FY12, with in 2H as macro headwinds normalize.

曾渊沧:短期最好策略是观望

曾渊沧:短期最好策略是观望
作者: 来源:中国证券网 2012-05-14
上星期股市下跌,的确是意料之外,估计不到法国总统选举与希腊国会选举结果公布后股市会大跌。

  这两场选举结果并没有意料不到的结果,选举前,民意调查所显示的数据与最后选举的结果是非常相近的,既然选举结果是意料中事,为甚么股市会在选举结果公布后大跌﹖

  新政府仍会与现实妥协

  短期内股市何去何从,不容易估计,最好的策略仍然是观望,我相信最后新政府仍会与现实妥协,而不是一意孤行搞出大灾难。政治人物上台前与上台后往往得调节上台前所讲的,与现实妥协。

S-REIT: What next in the face of volatility (DMG)

As the gl obal markets once again focus on the European debt crisis, we expect the global equities market to be plagued by volatility through 2Q12. While the fundamentals of S-REITs continue to be strong, we note that in times of extreme volatility, some REITs are more resilient and outperform others. Going forward, we prefer defensive REITs that focus on the retail and industrial sectors as our study demonstrated that these sectors are more resilient historically in terms of dividend payout and share price during a volatile market. Concurrently, our study further demonstrated that hospitality and integrated office REITs underperform the STI during this period. Given an increasingly weak market sentiment, we believe this might be a good time to engage in some profit taking before buying again on weakness; particularly on REITs such CCT and CDL-HT. We continue to maintain OVERWEIGHT on the REITs space as a whole but favour on retail and industrial REITs, with our top pick in CapitaMall Trust (CMT SP; BUY; TP: S$2.03).

Olam Int’l: Expect near-term weakness (OCBC)

Olam International Limited (Olam) reported 9MFY12 revenue of S$11,947.7m and estimated core net profit of S$215.3m, meeting 63.2% and 60.5% of our FY12 estimates respectively. Going forward, Olam seems to be a tad more optimistic about its Food business; and more muted towards its Industrial Raw Materials segment. While we are keeping our FY12 and FY13 estimates intact, we note that the market is adopting a more “risk off” approach in light of the renewed global economic uncertainties. In response, we lower our fair value to S$2.24 from S$2.63, based on 15x blended FY12/FY13F EPS (vs. 18x FY12F previously). We maintain our HOLD rating in anticipation of more near-term weakness among commodity plays.

China Minzhong’s Founder, Chairman and CEO Lin Guo Rong (LGR) bought 100,000 shares in the open market (Limtan)

CHINA MINZHONG
S$0.585-MINZ.SI
China Minzhong’s Founder, Chairman and CEO Lin Guo Rong (LGR) bought 100,000 shares in the open market yesterday at 58.5 cents each, raising his holding in the company to 35,089,297 shares or 6.3% of the company.

His purchase was done as the company’s share price is under tremendous selling pressure (at its closing price of 58 cents yesterday, it is at its lowest level since its IPO in mid-2010 at $1.20 and also off significantly from its all time high of $1.85 in Feb’11) as management failed to deliver on their seasonally strongest quarter of
the year in 3Q ended Mar’12 where profit fell due to the delayed winter season.

Ask The Experts: Situations In Europe Could Benefit Asian Bonds


Singtel: Mio TV Outage A Disappointment (UOBKH)

S’pore Telecommunications
Share Price S$3.13
Target Price S$2.95
Downside -5.8%
(Previous TP S$2.94)

Mio TV Outage A Disappointment
What’s New
• SingTel’s mio TV lets BPL fans down. SingTel’s mio TV failed miserably in the coverage for the season finale of the Barclays Premier League (BPL) broadcast last Sunday. The disruption was particularly disappointing because the league championship was decided only on the final day of the 2011/12 season. Football fans repeatedly experienced persistent signal failures, frozen frames and blackouts, with many robbed of the crucial game’s changing moments.

CapitaRetail China Trust: Growing with the Chinese consumer (OCBC)

CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST
BUY (initiate)
Fair value S$1.44
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.09
versus: Current price S$1.28
12m total return forecast 20%

GROWING WITH THE CHINESE CONSUMER
• One-stop shopping destinations
• Growing Chinese consumption
• Acquisition and asset enhancement

ECS Holdings: Margins under pressure (OCBC)

ECS Holdings (ECS) reported 1Q12 revenue of S$901.6m (+7.1% YoY) which met our expectations. PATMI slumped 41.0% YoY to $6.2m. Excluding forex and other exceptional items, we estimate that core earnings would have declined 36.1% YoY to S$6.6m, forming 15.2% of our full-year projections. This was below our expectations, due to weaker-than-expected gross margin. Looking ahead, while we expect ECS’s performance to pick up more strongly in 2H12, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties would continue to form a major risk to its operations, in our view. Coupled with the weak 1Q12 results, we cut our FY12 core PATMI forecasts by 19.9% (FY13 by 17.5%). But even with a lower fair value of S$0.555 (previously S$0.69), we maintain BUY as valuations remain undemanding.

M1:Mastering the Art of Prepaid (KE)

M1
BUY(unchanged)
Share price: SGD2.46
Target price: SGD2.85 (unchanged)
Mastering the Art of Prepaid
Prepay it forward. M1’s new prepaid MasterCard offering looks attractive enough to help it regrow its prepaid mobile segment, which has seen negative net-adds for the past two quarters. We maintain our BUY call on M1 and target price of SGD2.85, based on implied yield of 5% on FY12F DPS of SGD0.145.

DBS Bank - Market Perspectives: Asia equities not done playing catch-up



JCY International: Another solid quarter (CIMB)

JCY International
Current RM1.57
Target RM2.22
Another solid quarter

JCY remains one of the cheapest tech stocks in our universe and boasts a robust near-term earnings outlook. It will continue to see positive flow-through from higher shipments by its HDD customers.

At 45% of our full-year forecast and 74% of consensus, 1HFY9/12 net profit was 52% ahead of consensus but broadly in line with ours and expect 2H to make up for any shortfall. Our target price is based on 6x CY13 P/E, in line with its comparables. Maintain Trading Buy.

MISC Bhd - It's time to buy back

MISC Bhd
Price Target : 4.44
Last Price : 4.10

Actual vs. Expectations
1Q12 saw a core net loss of RM128.2m as compared to our FY12 full year net profit of RM928.1m and RM977.3m that of the market consensus.

The result was, however, broadly in line with our expectation as the loss incurred by the Liner business in 1Q12 is likely to be the last one before the unit winds up in Jun 2012.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 05 18: 全部人死心才跌夠

全部人死心才跌夠
昨日恒指先升後跌,又是一個小陷阱,這也說明想撈底的人還真不少,只有當人人死心,無人想撈底,恒指才能真正見底。

大鱷豈敢挑戰歐央行
眼下市場相當悲觀,不過,我不妨提出另一個角度供大家參考。目前,人人都認為6月份希臘國會重選,左翼政黨會上台執政,到時候歐盟會因為左翼政府不遵守緊縮政府開支計劃,而停止再援助希臘,希臘會破產,希臘會脫離歐元區,希臘一脫離歐元區,西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利的國債馬上出問題,沒人要, CDS再度熱炒,歐元遭狙擊……

Contrasting fortunes for MAS, AirAsia

The Star Online > Business
Friday May 18, 2012
Contrasting fortunes for MAS, AirAsia

By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: It is going to be another quarter of losses for Malaysia Airlines (MAS) when it releases its first quarter 2012 results by month-end but its rival AirAsia Bhd will continue to grow its earnings amid rising jet fuel prices that is putting pressure on airlines' margins.

Analysts tracking AirAsia have mixed views as to how much the airline will turn in for the first quarter.

五穷 六绝 七翻身

五穷六绝七翻身

  五穷六绝七翻身是香港股市在1980年代至1990年代的一个都市传奇,是当时的经济分析员在参考过历年香港股市的升跌而得出的结论。结论指:股市在每逢5月的时候都会开始跌市,到了6月更会大跌,但到了7月,股市却会起死回生。

  由于这个“预言”在发表之后数年都继续出现,使当时不少小股民都对这个传说深信不疑。不过,到了1990年代的中后期,开始有人以各种方式来“预防”这现象。这些“预防措施”包括在踏入3月之前,把手上的高价股票卖出,并于6月之时大手购入各种低价的优质股票,结果使这个升跌周期不断提早出现。

解码财商:胡立阳称越涨越买 远离套牢


对全年经济展望 经济师持谨慎看法

对于今后的发展,分析师认为,如果政府出台更多房地产降温措施,建筑业的增长可能难以持续。在制造业方面,随着中国经济增长放缓以及欧洲市场的不稳定,前景并不是很清晰。

王阳发 报道
ongyh@sph.com.sg

  数据显示上一季经济增长势头获得加强,但现在下跌风险却上升了,官方因此维持1%至3%全年增长预测,经济师也对全年展望持较谨慎看法。

  贸工部昨日发布的数据显示,我国经济第一季和一年前同季比较(同比)增长1.6%,稍微比市场原先预期的1.8%低,也低于上一季(去年第四季)的3.6%同比增幅。不过,经济重新取得强劲增长势头,第一季和上一季比较(环比)增长了10.0%,扭转了上一季的环比萎缩2.5%情况。

海指仍处调整期

欧洲央行不再为希腊一些无法重新调整资本的银行注资,加剧希腊可能离开欧元区的窘境,新加坡股市先起后跌,早盘股市在昨天猛挫1.6%后稍作回弹,但后劲不足,闭市下跌8.54点,报2822.61点。

  NRA资本公司董事经理史各力(Kevin Scully)受访时预计,市场上不确定因素太多,如果希腊没有出现违约,那海峡时报指数预计会下探2700点,但目前仍然只处于调整期,并非进入熊市。

  史各力指出,新加坡股市较早前的涨势,主要由三个因素推动:美国经济指数、中国方面去年11月放宽银根以及希腊在2月就第一轮救助方案达成协议。

金管局:今年通胀率将保持在较高水平

新加坡的通货膨胀率料将继续偏高,而且今年进一步上升至高峰后虽会回降一些,仍还是会保持在较高的水平。
  金融管理局副局长王宗智昨日在记者会上受询时表示:“和历史正常水平比较,通胀率将偏高。我们觉得它在今年将达到高峰然后回降,不过还是会保持在较高的水平。”

  我国通胀率在3月份达到5.2%,显著高于2月份的4.6%。鉴于今后的价格压力预期,金管局上个月收紧了货币政策,让新元汇率可加快升值,同时把全年通胀率预测大幅上调到3.5至4.5%。贸工部同时也预测全年经济增长率在1至3%,这已比2011年的4.9%增长率显著放缓。

  王宗智也表示,上个月刚调整的货币政策,是经过仔细考虑以便平衡经济增长和控制通胀的需要,金管局认为这个政策目前仍然合适。金管局也维持上个月对全年通胀率的预测。

首季经济虽强力反弹 贸工部维持全年经济增长预测1至3%

贸工部表示,目前世局不明朗,暂不能排除欧元区主权债务发生混乱违约的可能,下行风险已增加,因此虽然我国第一季经济增长势头加强,贸工部仍维持全年经济增长预测1%至3%。

  在制造业与建筑业的带动下,我国经济今年第一季大力回弹,环比增长10.0%,符合上个月公布的9.9%预估增长。

  金融管理局则表示,该局维持上个月公布的通货膨胀率预测,即全年消费价格指数涨幅预测为3.5%至4.5%,全年核心通胀率则预测维持在2.5%至3%。金管局也认为它上月的货币政策调整策略是恰当的。

  贸工部昨日发布的第一季经济调查报告显示,新加坡经济在第一季同比增长1.6%,比不上前一季的3.6%;不过在经季节性调整的年率化季比增长10%,从前一季的萎缩2.5%强力反弹,因此避开了技术性衰退。

Can Noble revive crushing margins?

Q1 profit almost halves but company confident of growth

[17/5/2012] – Noble Group expects agricultural profit to improve in 2012 as the Brazilian sugar mills come into post harvest production season.

Founder and chairman, and 23.7% shareholder, Richard Elman said in the results briefing that recent efforts in getting into new businesses and new markets were starting to pay off, and it was now up to new CEO, Yusuf Alireza, to extract the most value from them.

MISC: Deeper into the red (CIMB)

MISC Bhd
Current RM4.09
Target RM4.35
Deeper into the red

MISC turned in larger losses in 1Q12, probably because of weaker-than-expected performances from its tanker, liner and chemical divisions. This is its second consecutive quarterly loss, after 4Q11’s loss which was the first in at least a decade.

MISC’s RM42m core net loss was a surprise to us as we expected it to report RM329m core profits for FY12 due to narrowing liner losses. We maintain our Underperform call and target price basis of 0.9x P/BV, as we believe asset prices may fall another 10%. We may look to cut our forecasts by at least 30% and lower target price after the analyst briefing.

高峰回跌市场超卖 优质股价值显现宜买入

高峰回跌市场超卖 优质股价值显现宜买入
Created 05/17/2012 - 19:36

(吉隆坡17日讯)随着国内股市从高峰水平回跌后,加上一些股票出现超卖迹象,分析员认为,一些优质股已经显现出值得买进的价值。

肯南嘉研究分析员指出,尽管外围因素造成国内股市大跌,但是目前还不是完全采取保守策略的时刻。

“在市场基本面无损和首季业绩表现好坏参半下,股市下跌,反而令不少股票跌至估值更吸引力的水平。”

该分析员相信,国内市场的流动性仍相当充裕,从而缓冲任何的市场跌势。

Power Root上市5年 出口市场大幅增长

Power Root上市5年 出口市场大幅增长

二零一二年五月十七日
(吉隆坡17日讯)在易耗品领域的激烈竞争中,本地业者Power Root有限公司(PWROOT,7237,消费产品组)成功在芸芸更强大和著名海外品牌中崛起。实际上,该公司自2007年上市5年以来,成功扩大其出口业务。

Power Root执行董事施传宝透露:“在我们上市之前,我们只有出口到2个国家。迄今,我们已经出口我们的产品到33个国家。”

因此,该公司今年将耗资介于600万至1000万令吉资本开销,提升其产能和仓库空间。

罗杰斯:将出现全球恐慌 切勿卖出黄金

罗杰斯:将出现全球恐慌 切勿卖出黄金
2012年05月17日07:02腾讯财经

据香港媒体引述外电消息称,国际投资大师罗杰斯近日表示,他不会卖出黄金,如果黄金价格再向下,计划买入更多黄金。更叮嘱投资者不要轻易卖出黄金。

  目前,国际大宗商品价格下跌,黄金价格频刷年内新低,并呈现持续下挫趋势。不过,罗杰斯表示,11年来黄金表现超过任何资产,虽然目前金价正处于调整,但并不令人奇怪。

Chongqing backs Chao Tian Men project, says CapitaLand

Chongqing backs Chao Tian Men project, says CapitaLand
04:45 AM May 18, 2012
SINGAPORE - A consortium led by CapitaLand that is developing a S$4.3 billion mixed-use property project in the Chinese megacity of Chongqing has received backing from local government leaders and is making planned progress on the development, the Singapore developer said yesterday.

"The Chao Tian Men project, a joint venture between CapitaLand, CapitaMalls Asia and Singbridge Holdings in Chongqing, is progressing as planned," Southeast Asia's largest property developer by market value said in a filing to the Singapore Exchange.

Tweak prior cooling measures before imposing new ones

Tweak prior cooling measures before imposing new ones
by Colin Tan 04:45 AM May 18, 2012
Those who were uncertain over whether the robust home sales by developers chalked up in recent months can be sustained have been left with no doubt following Tuesday's release of April's sales figures.

In all, a total of 2,487 new private homes - excluding executive condominiums (ECs) - were sold last month. This is a near 4-per-cent jump from March and is the highest monthly level since 2,772 units were sold in July 2009.

Greece euro exit impact ‘unimaginable’

Greece euro exit impact ‘unimaginable’
2012/05/18

CONTAGION EFFECT: There is a risk of Asia crisis-style debacle, says Bank Negara governor

BANK Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz warned that a Greece exit from the eurozone would have unimaginable consequences for Europe.

She, however, is confident a solution can be found to address the situation.

Zeti said this in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Istanbul, Turkey yesterday.

What Does 'FB' Mean for the Nasdaq?


Is Apple's Run Over?



Analysts-sceptical-of-Facebooks-longterm-growth-potential

2012-0515-57金錢爆(斯巴達的乞討)


As Greek Exit Looms, More Bloodletting to Come



Maersk Line Sees Revenue Rebounding in Q2


More Downside Risk Ahead for Gold


Thursday, May 17, 2012

“5月賣股離場”應驗‧綜指高峰回退4.6%‧分析員:投資宜抗跌‧迴避外資股

“5月賣股離場”應驗‧綜指高峰回退4.6%‧分析員:投資宜抗跌‧迴避外資股
Created 05/17/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡17日訊)“5月賣股離場”(Sell in May and Go Away)的股市流行語看來已有所應驗,馬股綜指自1609.33點的近期高峰回退了4.6%,在市場前景不明朗之際,分析員建議採取抗跌性的投資策略和迴避外資股權偏高的股項。

股市大跌後
部份股項浮現價值

一些分析員則認為,股市在近期大跌後,部份股項開始浮現價值。

希臘危機擴大引發市場恐慌,大馬股市綜指在昨日隨區域股市賣壓而重挫25點或1.6%,寫下自2011年10月18日以來最大跌幅,而成交值高達21億令吉,也遠超過往一個月的平均16億令吉成交量。整體股市基調保持疲軟。

Spore-Q1-GDP-up-16-onyear

IPC acquires land in Japan to build condo

IPC Corporation said it has agreed to purchase a piece of land to build a 75-unit condominium project in Oiso in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. The total cost of 2.48 billion yen ($39 million) to be funded internally.

The project is a three-storey development expected to be completed by Q3 2013. It is the sixth condominium project in the country for IPC.

The company has completed four condominium projects in Japan. It has a fifth under development which it expects will be completed by Q1 2013.

匯豐:看好企業債券‧新興市場股市仍充滿機會

匯豐:看好企業債券‧新興市場股市仍充滿機會
Created 05/17/2012 - 10:11

(吉隆坡16日訊)匯豐環球投資管理宏觀及投資策略環球主管菲立普普爾認為,包括大馬在內的新興市場股市,仍充滿投資機會,企業債券則是另一項投資選擇。

從風險中攫取溢價

他表示,相對於債券,更看好股票投資,因為股息率較債券收益率更具吸引力;而若以債券來看,則會傾向選擇企業債券,從風險中獲取溢價。

SapuraKencana Petroleum - Subscribe at RM2.88


首季虽亏损 MISC估值诱人

(吉隆坡17日讯)儘管MISC公司(MISC,3816,主板贸服股)2012財政年首季业绩陷入亏损,大部分投行却上调该公司评级,主要因为该公司估值在过去一年已挫跌超过40%,並相信其表现在脱售货运(Liner)业务后会转好。不过,仍有一部分分析员看淡该股,並相信其將因为大环境拖累而在全年保持疲弱表现。

然而,该公司今日却受到看好其前景的投资者趁低买入,全日上涨16仙或4.06%。MISC公司今日以3.98令吉开始交易,虽然一度微跌至全日最低水平3.96令吉,但很快启动涨势,来到全日最高水平4.17令吉。最终,该股以4.10令吉结束交易,为全日第8大上升股。

End of penny stock party

End of penny stock party
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Clint Loh
Thursday, 17 May 2012 14:47

KUALA LUMPUR: Penny stocks may continue their sharp declines in view of the current weak market sentiment with speculative trades drying up, said market observers.

“Market sentiment overrides everything. Penny stocks which had risen sharply on speculative trades in the past few months will be most affected in a broad market selldown,” said a head of research with a local investment bank.

IGB Corp 1Q net profit up 47.96% to RM57.44m

IGB Corp 1Q net profit up 47.96% to RM57.44m
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 17 May 2012 18:01

KUALA LUMPUR (May 17): IGB CORPORATION BHD [] net profit for the first quarter ended March 31, 2012 jumped 47.96% to RM57.44 million from RM38.82 million a year earlier, due to improved performance by all its divisions.

The company said on Thursday that its revenue for the quarter increased 23.7% to RM222.89 million from RM180.07 million in 2011, due to due to higher contributions from all operating divisions.

JCY International 2Q net profit surges 12 fold to RM163.09m

JCY International 2Q net profit surges 12 fold to RM163.09m
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Surin Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 17 May 2012 17:42

KUALA LUMPUR (May 17): JCY International Bhd net profit for the second quarter ended March 31, 2012 surged 12 fold to RM163.09 million from RM12.46 million a year earlier, on the back of 45% increase in revenue

The company said on Wednesday that its revenue for the period jumped to RM576.58 million from 397.43 million in 2011.

Italy, Spain Are Not Greece: Expert


Indian Rupee to Push 55-57: Strategist


商場泡沬

商場泡沬
Created 05/17/2012 - 11:33

大馬人是不是太愛逛商場了?

全球經濟不明朗,國家銀行收緊信貸,大馬產業市場開始感受到寒意,然而零售產業卻依然熱火朝天,購物商場遍地開花,連創建於1910年的大馬首要財團森那美,百年來從不沾手零售產業,如今也將展開旗下的首項購物商場計劃。

森那美旗下的森那美產業,將和來自新加坡的商場發展商亞洲嘉茂(Capita Malls),聯手在吉隆坡美拉華蒂花園進行一項發展成本約5億令吉的商場計劃。

該商場佔地24萬2千平方英呎,總淨出租面積達約63萬5千平方英呎,預計在2016年完成。

重估盈餘‧租金收入高‧KRIS資產首季淨利漲32倍

重估盈餘‧租金收入高‧KRIS資產首季淨利漲32倍
Created 05/17/2012 - 10:47

(吉隆坡16日訊)歸功於重新估值盈餘,以及高總租金收入和低維修成本,推動KRIS資產(KASSETS,6653,主板產業組)截至2012年3月31日止第一季淨利暴增3216.23%至13億3千969萬令吉,前期為4千零39萬8千。

首季稅前盈利暴漲逾25倍至13億5千680萬令吉,主要是投資資產合理價重估取得12億9千650萬令吉盈餘,以及高總租金收入和低產業維修成本,若扣除相關盈利,稅前盈利為6千零30萬令吉,較去年同期的5千430萬令吉成長11.05%。

避免衝擊全球經濟‧潔蒂:應覓策防希臘出走

避免衝擊全球經濟‧潔蒂:應覓策防希臘出走
Created 05/17/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡17日訊)希臘組閣協商失敗告終,宣佈重新舉行大選後,全球高度關注該國能否續留歐元區。大馬國家銀行總裁丹斯里潔蒂警告,希臘出走歐元區,恐為歐洲帶來“難以想像”後果,她相信一定會有解決方案,避免希臘出走。

後果難以想像

64歲的潔蒂在伊斯坦堡接受彭博電視專訪指出:“希臘出走歐元區,對歐洲來說,後果難以想像,因此必需尋求解決之道,避免希臘出走。我相信一定有解決辦法。”

匯豐:控成本增收入‧已結束28業務

匯豐:控成本增收入‧已結束28業務
Created 05/17/2012 - 17:42

匯豐控股(HSBC)近年不斷“瘦身”,以達到發展策略目標。該行公佈,去年以來已出售或結束28項業務,令集團架構變得更簡單及容易打理,並可能使風險加權資產減少550億美元,而業務整合亦料中短期增加收入15億美元。

一如早前首季業績時提到削減開支情況,匯豐再次重申,按首季減省開支幅度年度化計,全年可節省20億美元,並預期2013年度減省25億至35億美元開支的目標可達。

营业额下跌拖低盈利 马国际船务首季亏4.6亿

营业额下跌拖低盈利 马国际船务首季亏4.6亿
Created 05/17/2012 - 13:01

(吉隆坡16日讯)马国际船务(MISC,3816,主板贸服股)截至2012年3月31日财年首季,净亏损按年扩大至4亿6508万令吉,上财年同期为净亏损3亿787万9000令吉。

营业额方面,按年下滑17.8%,报24亿391万1000令吉,上财年同期为29亿2435万5000令吉;上财年同期的6.90仙每股亏损,在首季也扩大至10.40仙每股亏损。

马国际船务解释,首季录得更大的亏损表现,归咎于营业额下跌拖低盈利,加上该公司首季也有1亿1640万令吉的额外船只减值拨备,及2亿2050万令吉的额外退出领域减值拨备。

恐慌抛售已出现 短期跌浪有见底机会

恐慌抛售已出现 短期跌浪有见底机会
2012年05月16日 19:03
来源:凤凰财经 作者:叶尚志

5月16日,受到欧债问题忧虑加剧的困扰,港股进一步扩展短期跌浪,但是相信有进入短期寻底最後阶段的机会。目前,全球股市仍然处於同步向下的运行周期,要扭转这样的一个恶性循环环路後,股市才有站得住的可能。由於美股依然是扮演着龙头角色,我们相信美股该会是第一个回复稳定状态的股市,而道琼斯工业平均指数从5月1日的高点13338点开始下跌调整,到目前为止已累跌了5%,中短期跌势亦已出现了超跌状态,估计在12300至12500点区间有强力支撑。如果美股能够止跌回稳的话,相信对於已出现了恐慌性抛售的港股,可以带来跌後反弹的刺激推动。

MISC: Looking beyond 1QFY12 (ECM)

MISC
12-month upside potential Target price 4.75
Current price (as at 16 May) 3.94
Capital upside (%) 20.6
Net dividends (%) 2.5
Total return (%) 23.1

Looking beyond 1QFY12
1QFY12 results came in below expectations with a net loss of RM465m compared to our and consensus full-year net profit forecast of RM725m and RM977m, respectively. We downgrade our FY12 and FY13 net profit by 13% and 7%, respectively, to reflect the weaker performance of MISC’s petroleum segment due to lower-than-expected charter rates and high bunker cost. Correspondingly, our TP is reduced to RM4.75 from RM5.70 based on 1.0x P/BV (from 1.2x previously), to account for concerns on structural change due to declining demand for crude oil in the US, as the country is the single largest importer of oil. At current price, the stock offers a 20.6% upside. As such we upgrade our call from Hold to Trading Buy.

Technics Oil & Gas: Buys Vietnam fabrication plant (AM)

TECHNICS OIL & GAS LTD
Buys Vietnam fabrication plant
Technics Oil and Gas is paying up to $10 million for a fabrication and engineering plant in Vietnam to expand its presence there.

The deal will also give Technics, a specialised maker of customized equipment used in oil and gas exploration and production, an edge in bidding for major projects in Vietnam that require local content, said Technics executive chairman and group MD Robin Ting.

1Q12 Results Report Card – A Quarter To Forget (UOBKH)

Strategy – Singapore
1Q12 Results Report Card – A Quarter To Forget

What’s New
• A quarter to forget. The 1Q12 reporting season ended on a weak note, with 38% of the results coming in below expectations, 43% in line and 19% above expectations (vs 31%, 63% and 6% respectively in 4Q11). This report highlights the notable developments and key changes following 1Q12 results.

民众纷纷提出存款 希腊银行开始出现挤兑现象

(雅典路透电)希腊组织联合政府失败令它退出欧元区的风险攀升,希腊人担心该国脱离欧元区后采用的新货币会没人要,纷纷到银行去提领存款,银行开始出现挤兑现象。
  据悉,希腊总统帕普利亚斯周一和各政党领袖会商文稿纪录显示,他当时曾说:“希腊央行行长普罗沃普洛斯告诉我,市场现在还没有到惊慌的程度,但大量的担忧可能最终演化为恐慌。”

  他披露,当天下午4时,他与普罗沃普洛斯通电话;后者表示,提款和流出的资金已超越6亿欧元(约9亿6850万新元),达到了7亿欧元。据普罗沃普洛斯估计,流出规模可能达8亿欧元,包括银行接到的对德国国债的买盘指令。

  来自希腊两家银行的消息向路透社表示,希腊储户周二从银行提取的存款规模与周一不相上下,帕普利亚斯提供的数字应该没有错。

HEALTHWAY MEDICAL: Stronger Outlook Ahead

HEALTHWAY MEDICAL: Stronger Outlook Ahead
Written by Leong Chan Teik
Tuesday, 15 May 2012 12:13

HEALTHWAY MEDICAL CORP posted a $1.9 million net profit in 1Q, up 24% year on year.

This adds credence to a market view that the company is on a path of sustainable growth under Lam Woon Pin, who took office as President and executive director in Jan 2011 after being headhunted from the CEO post at the Health Promotion Board.

GLOBAL PREMIUM HOTELS: Lots Of Insights From Q&A Session

GLOBAL PREMIUM HOTELS: Lots Of Insights From Q&A Session

Written by Nicole Chen
Thursday, 17 May 2012 07:07

GLOBAL PREMIUM HOTELS’ 1Q net profit came in 46.9% higher year-on-year at $6.4 million.

Revenue increased 28.8% y-o-y to $14.9 million on contribution from three new hotels launched in 2011 -- Parc Sovereign, Fragrance Hotel-Elegance, and Fragrance Hotel-Riverside.

The Group’s average occupancy rate (AOR) in 1Q 2012 improved 15.7 percentage points to 91.7%, with new hotels achieving occupancy of 89% to 98%.

Greek Euro Exit Would Risk Asia Crisis-Style Rout, Zeti Says

A Greek exit from the euro could cause contagion comparable to the Asian financial crisis, according to Malaysia’s central bank Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz, who had first-hand experience of that turmoil.

“The worst-case scenario is what we saw in Asia,” Zeti, 64, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Istanbul yesterday. “When one economy collapses, then the market usually moves on to focus on the next one, then there will be a contagion that will affect different countries that probably don’t deserve those kinds of consequences.”

Sleepless in Europe (MIB)

Strategy note
Neutral (unchanged)
Current KLCI: 1,536.0
YE KLCI target: 1,565.0 (unchanged)
Sleepless in Europe

MISC: Down But Not Out (MIB)

MISC
Hold (from Sell)
Share price: MYR3.94
Target price: MYR4.80 (from MYR5.70)
Down But Not Out

Upgrade to HOLD, TP revised to MYR4.80. 1Q12 results were hit by several one-offs and huge losses at the liner division. We expect earnings to recover in 2Q12 as MISC progressively exits from the liner operations. Trading below book value, we upgrade MISC to a HOLD. The upside to our new TP warrants a more aggressive call but at this stage, the outlook remains hazy for the petroleum and chemical divisions particularly amid rising external economic headwinds.

Singapore Airlines: Off to a Good Start (DMG)

Singapore Airlines: Off to a Good Start
(BUY, S$10.28, TPS$12.13)
SIA released its operating stats for the first month of FY13 yesterday. Revenue passenger km (RPK) grew +9.8% y-o-y (m-o-m: -1.4%). SilkAir aggressively expanded its RPK at 26.2% y-o-y although demand in the freighter segment remained weak, with a recovery anticipated only by the 2H. We remain positive on SIA’s outlook on expectations that demand will rebound on an uptick in passenger yields, although the upside would be marginal. BUY call maintained, at an unchanged FV of SGD12.13.

Armstrong Industrial: Hints of higher dividends (CIMB)

Armstrong Industrial
Current S$0.27
Target S$0.26

Although1Q12 core earnings were below expectations, earnings should be healthier for the rest of 2012, as margins recover with management’s keen focus on profitability.

That said, we believe our earlier margin assumptions were too aggressive, and have adjusted them. Our FY12-14 earnings drop by 5-11% accordingly. We also switch our target to 8x CY13 P/E (5-year average) from 1.6x P/BV as earnings are recovering. Maintain Neutral.

Hengyang:lower-than-expected earnings (S&P)

Hengyang Petrochemical Logistics
Price: SGD0.28

Results Review
• Hengyang’s 1Q12 net profit of CNY3.1 mln (-43.9% YoY) was below expectations as it only reached 17% of our original 2012 forecast. The lower-than-expected earnings were mainly attributed to the higherthan- expected administrative and interest expense cost arising from its new startup Deqiao facility since November last year.

• 1Q12 revenue gained 43.3% YoY to CNY31.6 mln, mainly due to contribution from the Deqiao Phase I facility. Compared to 1Q11, the gross margin declined to 44.6% vs. 47.7% previously due to lower profit margins at Deqiao. Nevertheless, compared to 4Q11, the gross margin did improve by 1.9%-pts due to some accounting adjustments.

Frasers Commercial Trust : Reveals Plan To Revitalise China Square Central (UOBKH)

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT SP)
Reveals Plan To Revitalise China Square Central
Price/Target S$0.925/S$1.07

What’s New
• China Square Precinct Master Plan. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT), together with Far East Organization and The Great Eastern Life Assurance Co Ltd has unveiled the China Square Precinct Master Plan, a collaborative effort to revitalise the downtown heritage area and create a vibrant retail, entertainment and hospitality destination with a combination of old and new urban forms. The Master Plan will integrate the companies’ respective developments, namely China Square Central (CSC), Far East Square and Great Eastern Centre, into a precinct known as “China Place”.

China Minzhong : broke below its all time closing low (Limtan)

CHINA MINZHONG
S$0.615-MINZ.SI
• China Minzhong fell a further 7.5 cents or 11% yesterday on 13.62mln shares, more than its 6 month average volume of 6mln shares and in the process broke below its all time closing low of 66.5 cents hit in Dec’11.

• Since its worse than expected 3Q Mar’12 result release on 14 May’12 (last Monday), the stock has declined a significant 25.5%.

Hi-P International: Capex burst may be a leading indicator (KE)

Hi-P International
Share price (S$) SGD0.73
Issued shares (m) 825.0
Market cap (SGD m) 606.3
Free float (%) 11.7
Major shareholders
Chairman & CEO Yao Hsiao Tung (59.2%),
Molex International (21.6%),
Hi-P treasury shares (7.5%)

Background: Hi-P provides contract manufacturing services and electro-mechanical modules to the telecommunications, consumer electronics and electrical, computing, life sciences and medical, and automotive industries. It has 15 manufacturing plants globally, located over five sites in China (Shanghai, Tianjin, Suzhou, Chengdu and Xiamen) and in Thailand, Mexico, Poland and Singapore.

施永青 : 德国不牺牲 欧盟将解体

德国不牺牲 欧盟将解体

2012-05-10
上周日法国与希腊的两场选举,都已清楚表明欧洲民众多不支持目前在欧洲广泛推行的紧缩政策。法国是欧元区除德国外的第二大强国,其人民也作出这样的选择;其他经济实力不如法国的国家,其人民有机会投票时会作怎样的选择,已不难推论。

本来解决债务危机的正途,当是收紧开支,节吃俭用,储钱还债。但在民主社会这条路不易行得通。因为,若选择行这条路,人民就得先吃苦。以希腊为例,欧洲央行答应施以援手的条件是要希腊政府节省开支,那就得减公务员工资,延后退休时间,削减各项福利补贴。这种做法令社会上大部分的人民的利益受损,他们当然不会认为这是解决债务危机的好方法。

Singapore Warns of Europe Default Risk as Economy Grows 10%

Singapore’s government said the risk of a “disorderly” debt default in Europe can’t be ruled out, clouding the outlook for its economy even as growth rebounded last quarter.

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 10 percent in the three months through March 31 from the previous quarter, more than an initial estimate of 9.9 percent growth, the Trade Ministry said today. The median of 14 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 10.6 percent gain.

Greece’s inability to form a new government after an inconclusive election could reverse progress made in resolving Europe’s debt turmoil, compounding risks stemming from a China growth slowdown and an uneven U.S. recovery. While Singapore tightened policy in April through faster currency gains to curb persistent price pressures, most Asian policy makers are holding or cutting interest rates to bolster their economies.

Asian markets hard hit

The Star Online > Business
Thursday May 17, 2012
Asian markets hard hit

Regional equities suffer massive sell-off as investors turn risk-averse

By YVONNE TAN
yvonne@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Regional equities suffered massive sell-offs dragging their main indexes to multi-month lows as political problems continued to mount in debt-laden Greece, affecting investor sentiment.

Key Asian markets shed more than 2% on average, fuelled also by concerns that China's economy may be going for a slowdown after recent data showed that foreign direct investment fell for a sixth month in April.

MISC net loss widens in Q1

The Star Online > Business
Thursday May 17, 2012
MISC net loss widens in Q1

,B> Liner business suffers from reduced volume carried

PETALING JAYA: MISC Bhd suffered a net loss of RM465.08mil in its first quarter ended March 31 compared with a net loss RM307.88mil a year earlier on the back of lower revenue, which slipped to RM2.4bil from RM2.9bil previously.

“The revenue decrease was largely due to reduction in liner business revenue from lower volume carried and lower freight rates,” MISC said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia.

AirAsia surprises investors

The Star Online > Business
Thursday May 17, 2012
AirAsia surprises investors

But its plan for significantly higher dividend may not trigger re-rating

PETALING JAYA: AirAsia Bhd surprised its shareholders and analysts when it announced its intention to pay a significantly higher dividend for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2011 (FY11).

“Increasingly, companies are giving out higher dividends and they realised that having a good dividend policy will boost investor sentiment,” an analyst said.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 05 17: 切勿估底留意成交

切勿估底留意成交
港股經過八連跌之後,前日稍微反彈,昨日再度狂跌,過去10個交易日,恒指已跌去2050點,有甚麼新的因素呢?沒有,還是希臘問題,希臘國會選舉後,沒有任何政黨取得多數席位,組織聯合政府的談判已正式宣佈失敗,下個月重選,最新的民意調查顯示,重選後左翼會勝出,情況與法國類似。左翼上台後會宣佈廢除目前的緊縮財政政策,如果歐盟不改變援助條件,希臘一定得退出歐元區。

不過,這不算新的問題,過去一星期,人人已知道希臘國會重選是勢在必行。

為甚麼股價不在選舉後一天內一跌到底,而是慢慢跌,天天跌?相信是因為當恒指於10個交易日前處於21309點時,市場上看好的情緒很重,不少人認為恒指很快可以創今年新高,部份板塊如澳門賭業股股價已創出歷史新高。因此,當股市下跌時,不少人入市博反彈,博反彈的力量阻止股市一口氣直瀉而下,這使到另一些人認為歐債問題不大。

Singapore To Keep Tackling Hot Activity In Property Mass Market – Minister

15 MAY 2012
Singapore To Keep Tackling Hot Activity In Property Mass Market – Minister
By Dow Jones Newswires

Singapore will continue efforts to temper pockets of heated activity in its property mass market, even as the overall real-estate sector shows signs of cooling in the wake of government intervention, the city-state’s national development minister said Monday.

“The market is a lot cooler than it was just, say, one year ago, although there are little pockets of hot activity, particularly in the mass market with the emergence of shoebox units,” Khaw Boon Wan told parliament in response to a lawmaker’s question. The so-called shoebox apartments have floor areas of 500 square feet or less.

严崇涛: 淡马锡控股已不再是“财富创造者”

淡马锡控股本来应该是我国的一个“财富创造者”,可是到后来却变成“财富管理者”,乖离了原有的路线。也许“财富管理者”比较容易做,可是我国的出路必须靠知识型经济,靠出口知识来创造财富,让人失望的是,淡马锡控股卖掉了我们的一些“知识”,新加坡人应该努力去思考未来知识型经济这条道路要怎么走。

  新加坡国立大学名誉副校长严崇涛在国立大学工程领袖学院(Institue for Engineering Leadership)杰出人士讲座系列上演讲时提出以上看法。他的讲题是“创造财富的领袖:裕廊对珊顿道”(Leaders in Wealth Creation: Jurong vs Shenton Way?)

  严崇涛认为,新加坡有建设廉价公屋、建设机场、以及教育方面的知识可供出口,可以借以维生和创造财富,因此这些知识的管理非常重要。当年政府要耗资1亿元兴建垃圾焚化厂,德国咨询公司方面看到他便连声道谢,让他觉得不是滋味,我国为此要支付给德国公司等于项目成本10%(1000万元)的咨询费。

化解欧债危机又生变数 海指再挫45点

欧元区从债务危机中复苏出现变数,本地股市昨天再次遭到洗礼,闭市下跌45.55点,或1.58%,创下五个月来的新低,闭市报2831.15点。

  海峡时报指数成分股中,每一只上升股就有六只下跌股,成交量也明显要来得高,彭博社的数据显示,昨天本地股市的成交量要比30日平均水平高出73%。

  瑞银财富管理研究部新加坡首席投资策略师郑汪清受访时说,过去几天所发生的大事件,已经明显令希腊离开欧元区的风险加大,这也就是资本市场目前正在做出的调整。

葛洛斯警告:美國公債價格漲勢很快將接近尾聲

葛洛斯警告:美國公債價格漲勢很快將接近尾聲
鉅亨網編譯張正芊 綜合外電  2012-05-16

全球最大債券基金公司 PIMCO (太平洋資產管理公司) 操盤手葛洛斯 (Bill Gross) 周二 (15 日) 警告,距離投資人不願再接受美國公債殖利率負值的時間,已經不遠了。


葛洛斯於英國《金融時報》撰文指出,由於美國主權信用評等已被調降至 AA+ 等級,加上投資國庫券享有負 200 個基點的政策利率優惠,因此債權人──相較於負債者──願意支持現有體系的意願,恐怕很快會消失。

他補充,加上美元儲備廣泛分佈在中國、日本及巴西及其他外匯儲備盈餘國家,因此合理假設,到了某個時間點,2% 的負實質利率將不再能滿足之前購買公債享有的優點。

Marc Faber : Global markets to rally if Greece exits Eurozone


Singapore Residential Property: Signs of life in high-end/mid-tier segments (OCBC)

URA data yesterday showed 2,660 new private residential homes (including 173 EC units) sold in Apr 12 - down 12% MoM. Excluding EC and landed-units, new home sales were up 4% MoM and 40% YoY to 2,449 units - a 33-month high since Jul 09. The take-up rate continued to be exuberant at 103%. While Apr sales in the mass-market segment (OCR) came down 18% MoM, we saw a 53% increase in mid-tier sales (RCR) to 779 units mostly due to a sell-out launch at the 244-unit Katong Regency. Interestingly, we also saw high-end sales (CCR) come up 247% to 191 units, boosted by the launch of Eon Shenton and healthy sales at older projects, such as Marina Bay Suites and Scotts Tower. Maintain NEUTRAL weight on the sector given potential property measures and residual uncertainty in Europe. Our top property picks are CapitaMalls Asia (BUY, FV: S$1.76) and CapitaLand (BUY, FV: S$3.21). Within the small-cap space, we favor Roxy-Pacific (BUY, FV: S$0.45). We have a SELL rating on City Developments (FV: S$8.92).

China Minzhong Food: Facing up to slower growth scenarios from FY13E (JPM)

China Minzhong Food
Price: S$0.75
Price Target: S$0.70
Previous: S$0.95
Facing up to slower growth scenarios from FY13E - downgrade to UW

• Weaker earnings for the quarter: Cost pressures continued to magnify. China Minzhong reported 3QFY12 net profit of Rmb241 million (-8% Y/Y) – missing JPM/consensus by c.14%/20%. The miss was once again attributed to the late winter arrival, which resulted in sales of champignon mushrooms rolling over into the April/May period (4QFY12) as well as rising costs hurting margins at the gross, operating and PBT levels.

Neptune Orient Lines : Feedback from management lunch (DB)

Neptune Orient Lines
Price (SGD) 1.04
Price target (SGD) 1.55
52-week range (SGD) 1.88 - 1.00
Feedback from management lunch

We hosted a lunch between management and investors last week. Key points from the company below :
- Demand growth is expected to be 5 - 7% this year. Losses in the industry have been caused by higher fuel cost and overcapacity.

- 1Q results do not really reflect the rate increases the industry has enjoyed in March. This will be more evident in 2Q. However, despite the rate increases, management expects 2Q performance to be weak (which we interpret to mean that they are struggling to break even) because of higher fuel costs.

甲级办公楼租金连续两季下滑

高力国际报告同时指出,今年首季甲级办公楼租用率从去年91.6%再度下滑至90.9%,主要是因为滨海湾金融中心第三商业大厦的竣工,为莱佛士坊/新市区增添了130万平方英尺的办公楼空间。

赵恺健 报道
kjcheow@sph.com.sg

因受到世界经济不确定性影响,我国甲级办公楼租金在今年首季继续下滑,出现了连续两个季度的租金下跌。

不过,新加坡依然是亚太办公楼租金最昂贵的第三大城市,仅次于香港和东京。这是继本地办公楼市场在2009年第三季以来,连续11个季度名列第三了。

香港与东京的办公楼租金在本季度也有所下滑。

Midas Holdings: Delayed orders hit financials (OCBC)

Midas Holdings (Midas) reported a disappointing set of 1Q12 results which was significantly below ours and the streets’ estimates. Revenue declined 22.3% YoY, forming 20.6% of our full-year projections. Net profit plunged 74.7% YoY, and met just 7.5% of our FY12 estimates. The weak performance was attributed to higher operating expenses and finance costs, as well as a RMB4.6m share of loss from its associated company NPRT. We slash our FY12 earnings estimates by 34.3%, and FY13 by 12.0%, because we expect FY12 to be a challenging year for Midas. Nevertheless, with Midas currently trading at a trough P/B of 0.6x, we believe that the market has already factored in most of the negatives. We expect Midas to post a stronger recovery in FY13, given that the mid-to-long term prospects for China’s railway sector remain sound. Hence, we roll forward our valuation to 11x blended FY12/FY13F EPS to better reflect this. Maintain HOLD with a lower fair value estimate of S$0.33 (previously S$0.375).

Facebook boosts IPO size by 25%, could top S$20 billion

Facebook boosts IPO size by 25%, could top S$20 billion
Updated 05:49 PM May 16, 2012
NEW YORK - Facebook will increase the size of its initial public offering by 25 per cent, a source familiar with the matter said, and could raise as much as US$16 billion (S$20 billion) as strong investor demand for a share of the No 1 social network trumps debate about the company's long-term potential to make money.

Those concerns over revenue growth were underscored earlier yesterday, when General Motors said it planned to pull out of advertising on Facebook.

'Sell' call on MAS

'Sell' call on MAS
2012/05/17

The research house estimates that the airline will announce a net loss of RM332 million for the period ended March 31 2012.

KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank, which is expecting a deep loss for the first quarter of 2012 for Malaysia Airlines (MAS), is recommending a "sell" for the national carrier's stock in the run-up to the expected announcement of its results next week.

"The first quarter of 2012 is expected to be severely loss-making due to the impact of a 20 per cent higher fuel price year-on-year and a weak yield environment," it said in its research note.

How Facebook Makes Money


Second RM40m payout from JCY?

Second RM40m payout from JCY?
By Francis Fernandez
bt@nstp.com.my
2012/05/17

Kuala Lumpur: JCY International Bhd, one of Southeast Asia’s biggest technology companies, is expected to approve a payment of up to RM40 million to shareholders today.
“They are having a board meeting tomorrow, followed by an analysts’ meeting later in the day,” a person familiar with the matter said yesterday.

The RM40 million is the second interim dividend that JCY is paying in this financial year to shareholders. Earlier in the year, JCY paid RM40 million in cash dividend to shareholders.

Facebook Insider Selling: Sell Signal?


Olam International: Net Profit Drops On Industrial Raw Material

16 MAY 2012
Olam International: Net Profit Drops On Industrial Raw Material
By Dow Jones Newswires

Agricultural commodities supplier Olam International Tuesday reported a 23 percent drop in third-quarter net profit mainly due to cotton procurement problems at its industrial raw materials unit.

Net profit for the three months ended March 31 was $98.7 million, compared with $127.3 million a year earlier, the company said in a statement. Sales revenue fell 11 percent to $4.23 billion in the quarter, it said.

CPO to Consolidate Around RM3,000 Level


不玩了! 股市教父賈文中賣鼎富證


Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Too Late to Sell in May: Analyst


Outlook for Greek Exit


PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 14.05.2012


经济动盪投资股市 匯丰看好新兴市场

吉隆坡16日讯)匯丰控股认为,在全球经济陷入动盪之际,投资者的策略应围绕在股市,尤其是新兴市场,而並非债券市场。这是因为全球股市的估值仍较为便宜,週息率亦比债市更诱人。

匯丰全球资產管理全球宏观及投资策略主管菲力普(Phillip Poole)表示,儘管债市的波动性低於股市,但当前全球股市的估值比任何时候都便宜。

他指出,股市与债市的週息率差距,是投资者的最大考量。自1990年开始,股市的週息率便一直处在债市之上。「纵观全球股市,新兴市场更值得我们关注,包括中国和俄罗斯,尤其俄罗斯的价格对帐面价值(P/BV)更是低於1倍。」

菲力普是在出席一项媒体匯报会时,向记者发表谈话。

Masterskill Education Group: More Dismal News (OSK)

Masterskill Education Group
Fair Value RM0.81
Price RM1.02
More Dismal News

Following a disappointing FY11 during which Masterskill’s earnings dived 62.7% y-o-y and the release of its 2011 Annual Report, we did an on-the-ground check on its operations in 1QFY12. We are maintaining our cautious stance given a potential earnings letdown in FY12 as its student base shrinks and its share price softens further on weakening fundamentals. With the company yet to turn around anytime soon, we maintain our SELL, at a revised FV of RM0.81, based on 0.7x FY12 P/NTA.

全球股市淒风苦雨 马股1540关口失守

(吉隆坡16日讯)希腊週二宣佈合组政府的行动失败,將被逼重新举行全国大选,退出欧元区风险升温,欧美股市应声走低,亚太股市週三再陷跌势,马股失守1540点,令吉则领跌亚幣。

虽然市场人士认为,希腊课题將对区域股市带来一定的负面情绪,不过若大型经济体,如中国与美国的宏观局势改善並持稳,將可扶持区域股市。

隨著希腊泛社会主义运动党领袖韦尼泽洛斯(Evangelos Venizelos)宣佈,由於合组新政府谈判失败,该国將被逼举行选举。加剧市场对欧洲债务危机进一步恶化的担忧,遏制投资者对高风险资產的需求,导致新兴市场股市跌至4个月低水平。

摩根史丹利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets index)跌0.6%至946.10点,为1月9日以来的最低水平。

REITs continue to find favour amid uncertainties

REITs continue to find favour amid uncertainties
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Insider Asia
Wednesday, 16 May 2012 10:53

With more than half of the real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed on Bursa Malaysia having released their 1Q earnings results, it appears that most continue to do well despite lingering concerns of oversupply and rental pressure, especially in the office segment.

Those that are more active in terms of asset acquisition, such as CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT) and Axis REIT, registered a strong earnings boost from the additional income contributions from newly acquired properties.

STX OSV: 1Q Results in line (OCBC)

STX OSV reported 1Q12 results that were broadly in line with our and the street’s estimates. 1Q revenue decreased by 12% YoY to NOK2.8b (1Q11: NOK3.2b), while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 13% YoY to NOK269m (1Q11: NOK310m). Operating margin was unchanged at 12.9%. Order-book fell slightly to NOK16.0b (end-FY11: NOK16.7b). To account for the increasing uncertainty over the eurozone bloc, we tweaked our valuation peg to 9x (previously 9.7x). Maintain BUY with lower fair value estimate of S$2.00 (previously S$2.25).

FCOT: China Square Precinct Master Plan revealed to revitalise downtown heritage area


China Square Precinct Master Plan revealed to revitalise downtown heritage area
Area to be transformed into a retail, entertainment and hospitality destination Singapore, 16 May 2012 – Far East Organization, Frasers Commercial Trust and The Great Eastern Life Assurance Co Ltd today unveiled the China Square Precinct Master Plan (the “Master Plan”), a collaborative effort to revitalise the downtown heritage area and create a vibrant retail, entertainment and hospitality destination, with a combination of old and new urban forms. The Master Plan will integrate the companies’ respective developments, namely Far East Square, China Square Central and Great Eastern Centre, into a precinct known as “China Place.”

外围危机再现 趁低吸购良机 大盘趋软40股写新低

外围危机再现 趁低吸购良机 大盘趋软40股写新低
Created 05/16/2012 - 10:35

(吉隆坡15日讯)由于外围环境再现危机,马股走势持续趋软,近日跌下52周新低水平的股项不断增加,5月以来已有66只股项创新低,周二单日创新低股就占了40只股项。

这些创新低的股项,不凡重工业股项,尤其是以油气相关股项和钢铁股居多。

5月共66达谷底

欧美隔夜股市大跌波及全球股市,导致富时大马隆综指今天一度下跌16点,全场下跌股达658股,创52周新低的股项更达40只,相等于马交所上市公司总数的3%。

外圍逆風狂刮‧馬股大跌25點‧亞股重挫

外圍逆風狂刮‧馬股大跌25點‧亞股重挫
Created 05/16/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡16日訊)希臘組建新政府失敗,令退出歐元區顧慮加大,投資者紛紛轉向避險,促使隔夜歐美股市全線下挫,亞股也籠罩在低氣壓中大跌1至2%,其中馬股在藍籌股沉重拋壓拖累下,全日暴跌25.03點或1.6%至1536.04點。

馬股失守1540點關口

希臘政治僵局導致關於希臘恐脫離歐元區的揣測升溫,歐美股市延續弱勢,德國、法國和英國等歐洲股市跌幅介於0.5%至0.8%,美股道瓊斯工商指數跌63.35點或0.5%,報12632點。

玉楼金阙:股灾症候群•陈金阙

玉楼金阙:股灾症候群•陈金阙
Created 05/16/2012 - 13:06

90年代歌手黄舒骏有一首歌叫“恋爱症候群” ,有最长的华文歌词之称。

里边遍数掉入爱河者的种种状况,让人感同身受,歌曲轻快活泼,流行一时。

虽然爱情一事,罄竹难书,事隔20年重听,仍然发现此曲永不过时,深受恋爱当下的情侣喜爱。

如今大选逐渐逼近,全国政党备战情形逐渐白热化,大有“吃也大选、喝也大选、睡也大选” 之势。

不过今年虽然是大选年,选举结果似乎不利执政党。

谈古纳今:马航须继前进

谈古纳今:马航须继前进•古纳西卡兰
Created 05/16/2012 - 13:05

马航(MAS)的大股东与亚航(AIRASIA)的换股计划撤销后,马航的问题并不会因而消失,因为这个“半合并”的换股计划,一开始就不是解决方案,也不是问题的根源。

换股计划不是解决方案,因为这两家航空公司拥有本身的利益,在许多方面也互相竞争。因此,利益冲突的问题非常难以处理。

工会阻挠换股

换股计划不是问题根源,因为马航原本就已经问题丛生。

这两家航空公司——一家是全方位航空公司,另外一家是廉价航空,唯一的解决方案,就是划分版图并分配利益。

歐債野火燒不盡‧股匯震盪‧大鱷作亂

歐債野火燒不盡‧股匯震盪‧大鱷作亂
Created 05/15/2012 - 19:20

希臘可能退出歐元區,德國總理默克爾領軍的執政聯盟在地方選舉大敗,在在顯示歐洲情勢嚴峻,投機分子趁機作亂,引發全球金融市場恐慌再起,歐美股市雙雙趴倒,歐元摜破1.29美元,恐慌指數更升至1月中旬以來高點。

歐洲政局動盪勢必加重歐債危機,全球經濟復甦也可能受到影響,投資者恐慌心理隨即飆高,紛紛從風險性資產撤出,帶動美、歐兩地市場恐慌指數攀升。歐股波動率(Vstoxx)指數週一(14日)飆升13%、來到31.92,是3週來最大漲幅;美股波動率指數(VIX)也暴增8%、達21.53,是今年1月17日以來新高。

日航脫胎換骨‧2011年賺72億超預期

日航脫胎換骨‧2011年賺72億超預期
Created 05/15/2012 - 19:08

(日本‧東京15日訊)脫離破產滿一年的日本航空(JAL),上年度獲利72億令吉,超越預期,主要受惠於削減成本策略奏效,但警告市場仍充滿不確定性。

日航昨日宣佈,截至3月底止的上年度淨利達1千866億日圓(約72億令吉),優於原估的1千600億日圓;營收達1.2兆日圓,反映強勢日圓使更多日本人出國旅行,儘管去年311大地震及海嘯打擊海外旅遊需求。營業利益則創2千零50億日圓新高。

日航說:“去年311大地震和歐債問題等因素使經濟不確定性增加,但我們仍持續採取行動提昇營收和獲利。”該公司預估本年度淨利將達1千300億日圓,但警告市場將持續詭譎多變,尤其是節節攀升的油價。

歐債巨浪打來‧金價逼近熊市

歐債巨浪打來‧金價逼近熊市
Created 05/16/2012 - 17:45

(美國‧紐約、新加坡16日訊)金價跌至年內最低水平,已接近熊市區域。希臘領導人未能成功組建政府,加劇了投資者對該國可能放棄歐元的猜測,並推動美元指數實現創紀錄升幅。

現貨黃金一度跌0.3%

今日現貨黃金一度下跌0.3%,至每安士1539.38美元,創下12月29日以來最低水平,較歷史最高水平低19.9%。大馬時間今日盤中,現貨黃金報每安士1542.48美元。

6月交割的黃金期貨一度下跌1.3%,至1536.50美元,較創紀錄高位下跌逾20%,符合了市場對熊市的普遍定義。

蘇格蘭皇家銀行:大馬經濟基本面穩定‧外資投資不受大選影響

蘇格蘭皇家銀行:大馬經濟基本面穩定‧外資投資不受大選影響
Created 05/16/2012 - 11:49

(吉隆坡15日訊)雖然大選腳步逼近,不過相信這不會改變外資在大馬的投資心態,主要是看好大馬的經濟基本面穩定。

蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)大馬及印尼區國際銀行主管安德魯施表示:“大馬經濟基本面強韌,加上游資充裕,可持續吸引外資的目光,而且我們認為政策或經濟成長會因大選而顯著改變。”

他舉例,國家石油(Petronas)持續砸下資本開銷發展國內的油氣業,跨國公司紛紛在大馬設立分公司,可見外資的投資活動只會有增無減。

安德魯施提到,在亞洲,中國及印度的勢力不可忽略,減低對歐美的依賴,因此亞洲各國有必要加強區域內的貿易活動。

曾渊沧@股友通讯录 May 2012

曾渊沧@股友通讯录 May 2012
对新加坡股市而言,又是一个沉闷的一个月,海峡指数经过一个月又回到原位,海峡 指数已经在2900 点至3050 点之间徘徊了超过3 个月,走势无规则一上一下的浮沉,市场上 没有任何真正能影响股市的消息,股市成交越来越低,散户都放假去了。

证券行没生意做,只好尽量创造一些新闻,於是有什么西班牙债券危机、法国PMI 偏低、还有美国联储局伯南克的谈话、中国总理、周小川的谈话.....冷饭不断地翻炒,实际上全是因为市场缺乏方向证券行创造出来的消息,每段消息也只能影响股市一天至两天。数天前,股市在大谈西班牙国债危机、德国PMI 数据时,股市是下跌了,但欧元仍然坚挺,欧元不跌就表示股市的下跌是虚假的、是市场缺乏消息而创造出来的炒作题材。美国伯南克前晚的谈话,也不知谈过、重谈了多少次?但是股市依然很认真的为他的谈话炒作一番,让道琼指数再升上1 万3 千点。中国方面,则不断地传出快减银行存款准备金比率,但是,日子

Property Sector: Sustained primary sales, rising policy risks (DMG)

Property Sector: Sustained primary sales, rising policy risks
(UNDERWEIGHT)
Apr 12 saw total developer sales of 2,487 units (2,660 units including ECs) +3.9%MoM and +37.8%YoY, sustaining >2,000 units for past 3 mths and highest since July 09. Successful launches eg. Katong Residences (126 1-br units, total 244 units) continue to reflect popularity of small format units. However despite the strong take-up we remain cautious on developers with rising policy risks. We raise RNAV discounts in our respective developer target prices by a further 5% in view of imminent policy risks and downgrade sector to UNDERWEIGHT. We continue to avoid residential exposure with SELL recommendations for SC Global, CDL and Wing Tai.

Singapore Airlines: Will new routes to smaller cities mitigate losses in premium segment?

SIA posts first quarterly loss in more than two years

[15/5/2012] – Singapore Airlines says advance bookings for Q1 FY12 are higher YoY, albeit off a low base after the Japanese earthquake last year.

Cut-price fares will mean it will earn less per passenger, especially on routes to Europe and the United States, where demand continues to be impacted by the lacklustre economic outlook.

The recovery of air freight demand will be gradual, possibly only in H2 and cargo yields are likely to remain stagnant for Q1.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:Yantian port volumes up 6% (DBSV)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:
BUY US$0.735
Price Target : 12-Month US$ 0.85
Yantian port volumes up 6%

Yantian Port volumes pick up in April. As we had highlighted in our last report, Yantian Port data for April looked more encouraging, with volumes growing 6% y-o-y to 822.5k TEU. YTD volume growth at Yantian Port turned positive for the first time this year, at 1.2%. Over at Hong Kong Port's Kwai Tsing terminals, April volume was slightly higher y-o-y, and YTD volume growth now stands at 3.6% yo- y. Of course, HIT volumes are growing faster than overall Kwai Tsing volumes, as was evident in 1Q12 throughput data for HPH Trust, which showed HIT volumes had grown close to 9% in 1Q, compared to 4.6% growth at Kwai Tsing during the same period. The higher growth at HIT is partly from higher transhipment volumes handled, and thus, lowers average ASPs for HPHT.

Asian markets, euro fall as Greece set for new vote

Asian markets, euro fall as Greece set for new vote
Posted: 16 May 2012 1137

HONG KONG: Asian markets fell Wednesday and the euro fell to a new four-month low on news Greece will go to the polls again after talks to form a coalition failed, stoking fears it will exit the eurozone.

The developments came as France's new pro-growth President Francois Hollande held his first talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the main proponent of austerity, to find common ground on tackling the crisis.

Property shares fall on policy concerns

Shares in Singapore developers such as CapitaLand fell after persistently strong property data added to worries that the government may introduce more measures to cool the housing market.

CapitaLand, Southeast Asia’s largest property developer, lost as much as 2.2% at $2.63, while smaller rival City Developments dropped 2.1% to $10.04.

New private home sales in Singapore stayed strong for the fourth consecutive month, rising nearly four% in April from March, data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed.

Midas: In line with management’s profit warning issued last week (Limtan)

MIDAS
S$0.32-MIDS.SI
 In line with management’s profit warning issued last week, 1Q ’12 profit fell a significant 75% yoy and 60% qoq to an all time low of Rmb15mln hurt by weaker sales, higher costs and losses sustained in its 32.5% owned associate company (versus profit previously).

 The lower profit coupled with higher working capital requirement saw operating cash flow turn negative Rmb43mln and after investing cash flow of Rmb26mln, cash holdings fell to Rmb670mln versus debts of Rmb1.17bln. With shareholders funds of Rmb3bln, gross gearing is 40%.

Armstrong: Hard Disk Drive (HDD) industry expected to recover back to pre-crisis level (limtan)

ARMSTRONG
S$0.27-ARMS.SI
• 1Q12 profit rose 27% yoy to $5.1mln largely due to $2.7mln fair value adjustment for derivative contracts and $2.3mln insurance claims. Without which, 1Q12 bottom-line would have been about break-even, reflecting the lingering negative impact from the Thai Floods in 4Q’11 as well as weakness in China’s automotive market.

• But with the Hard Disk Drive (HDD) industry expected to recover back to pre-crisis level in 3Q’12 and recovery of China’s automotive market coupled with resumption of their Thai operations in 2Q12, management remains optimistic that 2012 profit will be better than 2011’s $8mln.

China: Swap rates to remain under downward pressure (DBSV)

China: Swap rates to remain under downward pressure
• The PBOC will lower the reserve ratio for large lenders by 50bps to 20%
• Better liquidity conditions should lead to less volatility in the 7-day repo rate but are unlikely to push the rate much below the March low of 2.8%
• The 1Y swap rate has fallen below the key 3% level and signals a small probability of cuts in the 1Y deposit rate
• Swap rates will remain under downward pressure in the coming months

UMS HOLDINGS: 1Q12 profit declined 20% (Limtan)

UMS HOLDINGS
S$0.335-UMSH.SI

• 1Q12 profit declined 20% yoy to $6mln on the back of 8% decline in sales to $32mln, reflecting the semiconductor industry downturn.

• But the sequential recovery which started in 4Q11 has continued into 1Q12 with qoq sales rising 27% after 4Q’11’s 16% while bottom-line also rose slightly from $5.6mln to $6mln.

Armstrong Industrial: Armed with blanks (CIMB)

Armstrong Industrial
Current S$0.27
Target S$0.32
Armed with blanks

Although headline profit grew 27% yoy, the growth came largely from insurance claims and fair-value adjustments for derivative contracts, reflecting poor earnings quality.

1Q12 core net loss of S$0.3m was worse than our S$1.7m profit forecast (and consensus profit forecasts) due to lower GP margins. We leave our numbers and Neutral rating unchanged pending its results briefing. Our target price is still at 1.6x P/BV (5-year average).